Fundamentals, not Bunds, Ultimately to Guide T-Bonds (Capital Markets Research)

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJUNE 4, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Fundamentals, not Bunds, Ultimately to Guide T-Bonds Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Fundamentals, not Bunds, Ultimately to Guide T-Bonds.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 6 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, January-May 2015s year-over-year percent changes for the worlds issuance of corporate bonds showed a 12% advance for investment-grade and a -8 decline for high-yield, begin on page 15.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Global Banks and Energy Companies.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: JNJ, bank risk, GECC, VZ, Greece, Brazil, yields, Colgate-Palmolive, ECB, ConAgra Foods, Best Buy, Lat Am, Exxon, HY covenants, euro bonds. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 24Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to resemble its recent 145 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 441 bp could approximate 460 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: April 2015, 1.7%; 2.9% average in 1Q/2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 16% to $1.305 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dips by -1% to $415 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Zach Witton 44 (20) 7772-1678 Zach.witton@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Matthew Circosta 1.612.9270.8118 Matthew.circosta@moodys.com Emily Dabbs 1.612.9270.8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAP...