WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJUNE 18, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Default Risk Rises, Rate Risk FallsCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Default Risk Rises, Rate Risk Falls. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Though Greece-related worries have widened the euro-priced investment grade financial company bond spread from the 109 bp average of the year-ended May 2015 to a recent 129 bp, the latter was well under its 348 bp average of the year-ended June 2012, begin on page 18.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Upgrades Outnumber Downgrades in US and Europe.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Lloyds, RBS, ABC, oil, Barclays, BNPP, Greece, spreads, ICBC, DB, Greece, Target, fundamentals, JNJ, bank risk, GECC, VZ. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 27Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to resemble its recent 143 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 477 bp could approximate 460 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: May 2015, 1.9%; 3.1% by spring 2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 12% to $1.264 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dips by -3% to $408 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Zach Witton 44 (20) 7772-1678 Zach.witton@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Matthew Circosta 1.612.9270.8118 Matthew.circosta@moodys.com Katrina Ell 1.612.9270.8144 Katrina.ell@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553....
