WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 19, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Dearth of Upgrades Reflects Aging Credit Cycle Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Dearth of Upgrades Reflects Aging Credit Cycle.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 6 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Fourth-quarter 2015s issuance of US$-denominated high-yield bonds may plunge by -30% year-over-year, begin on page 15.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Downgrades Predominate¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: MCD, WMT, China, BK, Nigeria, BNS, Portugal TOY, STANLN, cycle, WY, KEY, corp credit, ALL. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 24Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to be a bit under its recent 160 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 626 bp should approximate 605 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: October 2015, 2.8%; Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 3.8% by August 2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 20% to $1.358 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance sinks by -14% to $364 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Katrina Ell +61 (2) 9270-8144 Katrina.ell@moodys.com Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8148 Faraz.syed@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comEditors note: We will not publish the Weekly Market Outlook next week (November 26), b...
