Credit and Jobs Need More Spending (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Credit and Jobs Need More Spending (Capital Markets Research)

Credit and Jobs Need More Spending (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Credit and Jobs Need More Spending (Capital Markets Research)
Published Jul 07, 2016
27 pages — Published Jul 07, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJULY 7, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHCredit and Jobs Need More SpendingCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Credit and Jobs Need More Spending. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Bondholders Profit from Less Than Rosy Outlook. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Second quarter 2016s US$-corporate bond issuance incurred year-over-year declines of -0.9% for investment grade and -13.4% for high yield, begin on page 16. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 16Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Less Action; Perhaps Less Worry.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Ratings, Brexit, compensation, Angang, Hungary, foreboding, ECB, FedEx, Portugal, XOM, equities, SOCGEN, CASA, YUM. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 25Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 150 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 630 bp, it may approximate 650 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: after May 2016s 5.0%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 6.4% by Q4 2016.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, while US$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 5.7% to a record $1.402 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -16.7% to $295 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8118 Jack.chambers@moodys.com Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Faraz.syed@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary ...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_190972
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Less Action; Perhaps Less Worry.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Net revenues bode poorly for both jobs and consumer spending21
  Wide credit spreads warn of slower jobs growth31
  Net high-yield downgrades fall from first- to second-quarter32
Topic of the Week By Ben Garber, Economist, Moody s Capital Markets Research, Inc.54
  Mid-year bond gains defied outlook51
  Record low government yields boost corporate debt51
  Investors see no upside inflation risk61
  Credit risk concerns stick around72
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific97
  THE US91
    Friday, July 891
  Employment Report June91
    Wednesday, July 1391
  Import Price Index June91
    Thursday, July 1491
  Producer Price Index June91
    Friday, July 1591
  Retail Sales June91
  Consumer Price Index June91
  Industrial Production &Capacity Utilization June101
  Business Inventories May101
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment July Preliminary101
  EUROPE101
    Friday, July 08111
  France: Industrial Production (May; 8:00 a.m. BST)111
  Germany: Foreign Trade (May; 8:00 a.m. BST)111
  Asia-Pacific121
    Friday, July 8121
  Taiwan Foreign Trade June121
    Monday, July 11121
  Japan Machinery Orders May121
  Australia Housing Finance May121
    Tuesday, July 12121
  Philippines Industrial Production May131
  Malaysia Industrial Production May131
  Japan Industry Activity Indexes May131
  India Consumer Price Index June131
  India Industrial Production May131
    Wednesday, July 13131
  China Foreign Trade June131
  South Korea Employment June131
    Thursday, July 14141
  Singapore GDP - Advanced 2016Q2141
  South Korea Monetary Policy July141
  Australia Employment Situation June141
  India Wholesale Price Index June141
    Friday, July 15141
  China Foreign Direct Investment June141
  China Fixed Asset Investment June151
  China GDP 2016Q2151
  China Industrial Production June151
  China Retail Sales June151
  Indonesia Foreign Trade June151
The Long View163
  Credit spreads161
  Defaults161
  Through the first 27 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a -0.3% dip for investment-grade and a -28.1% plunge for high-yield. US economic outlook171
  The mid-point of the range for fed funds should finish 2016 no greater than 0.875%. In view of the considerable under-utilization of the world s productive resources, low inflation should help to rein in treasury bond yields. As long as labor is gro...171
  EUROPE171
  The euro zone economy will likely slow this and next year due to the U.K. exit from the European Union. Although we still expect the economy to expand, we have cut the growth estimates to 1.3% for this year and to 1.1% for next year, from 1.6% and 1.8...171
  Although the annual euro zone inflation accelerated slightly in June thanks to a softer decline in energy prices, the U.K. exit from the EU will weigh on the economy, which will likely push consumer prices lower. Inflation will remain subdued in comin...171
  The subdued inflation forecast and the U.K. exit will likely prompt the European Central Bank to prolong its asset purchases after March 2017, while providing additional liquidity through targeted long-term refinancing operations. Although the ECB rev...171
  Moody s Analytics expects U.K. economic growth to moderate to 1.5% this year and to 0.5% next year. Heightened uncertainty after its exit has rattled financial markets, with the pound plunging and equity indexes around the world falling. Although U.K....171
  The U.K. will face tough talks on its place in the single market. While the EU says British access to its market depends on labor movement freedom, the U.K. would aim for the country to stay in the single market while putting a stop to immigration. Am...171
  Asia Pacific181
Ratings Round-Up191
Ratings Round-Up191
Ratings Round-Up192
Market Data214
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications253

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Moody's Capital Markets Research—Moody's Analytics offers research, unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management.

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MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Credit and Jobs Need More Spending (Capital Markets Research)" Jul 07, 2016. Alacra Store. May 04, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Credit-and-Jobs-Need-More-Spending-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3106>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Credit and Jobs Need More Spending (Capital Markets Research) Jul 07, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 04, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Credit-and-Jobs-Need-More-Spending-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3106>
  
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