WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJANUARY 14, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Credit and Copper May Block Rate HikesCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Credit and Copper May Block Rate Hikes. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Downgrades and Defaults Are Moving on Up, but M&A Still Needs Debt. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, The start of 2016 shows investment-grade corporate bond issuance topping year-end 2015s expectations, while high-yield offerings lag earlier views, begin on page 19.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Energy Prices Press US Ratings.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 24Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Shell, bank risk, sov risk, liquidity, Stressed EDF, risk, spreads, CHK. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 28Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be a close to its recent 163 bp. High Yield: Recent spread of 748 bp may approximate 685 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: December 2015, 3.2%; MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts 4.2% by November 2016.Issuance For 2016, US$ IG bond issuance may dip by -0.3% to $1.321 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance may drop by -16.7% to $293 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.com Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8111 Jack.chambers@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH2 JANUARY 14, 2016 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH, ...
