WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJANUARY 28, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Credit Steadies, But Its Too Early to Call a Bottom Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Credit Steadies, But Its Too Early to Call a Bottom.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Fed Defiant Despite Limp Inflation and Corporate Credit Crunch. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, January 2016s prospective 253 bp average for the long-term Baa industrial company bond yield spread will be the widest since July 2009s 290 bp, begin on page 21. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Down&isks. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 25 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: MS, GS, DB, Satellite, sov risk, MET, BP , special events, Exxon, Chevron, M&A, China, COP. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 29Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be less than its recent 177 bp. High Yield: Recent spread of 795 bp may approximate 695 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: December 2015, 3.2%; Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 4.2% by November 2016.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, while US$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may rise by 1.5% to $1.346 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may drop by -18.4% to $292 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Fa...
