Credit Risks Rise as Sales Lag Capacity (Capital Markets Research)

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJULY 16, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Credit Risks Rise as Sales Lag CapacityCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Credit Risks Rise as Sales Lag Capacity. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber M&A Frenzy Roils Ratings and Pumps Up Debt Issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Just two issuers supplied $17.8 billion, or 94%, of the $19.0 billion of high-yield bonds offered worldwide through the first 14 days of July, begin on page 16.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 16Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Action Returns to a More Normal Pace.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: BAC, RSG, Russia, HON, Greece, SANTAN, credit, Sony, Greece, LUV. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 25Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to resemble its recent 150 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 492 bp should approximate 495 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: June 2015, 2.0%; 3.0% in 1H2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 12% to $1.261 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance sinks by -5% to $399 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka 1.420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Faraz Syed 1.612.9270.8146 Faraz.Syed @moodys.com Emily Dabbs 1.612.9270.8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH2...