Credit Looks for US to Realize Potential (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Credit Looks for US to Realize Potential (Capital Markets Research)

Credit Looks for US to Realize Potential (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Credit Looks for US to Realize Potential (Capital Markets Research)
Published Jan 12, 2017
25 pages — Published Jan 12, 2017
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJANUARY 12, 2017CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Credit Looks for US to Realize PotentialCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Credit Looks for US to Realize Potential. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Thus far in January, the lively pace of new high-yield bank loan programs offsets flat high-yield bond issuance, begin on page 13. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh US Downgrades in Energy and Healthcare.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: BAC, optimism, Portugal, DB, revisions, outlook, US, great, China, Italy, inflation, OPEC, guidance, sovereigns, inflation, Italy, jolt, Trumponomics, Lebanon. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2017 spread to somewhat exceed its recent 122 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 405 bp, it may approximate 525 bp by year-end 2017. Defaults US HY default rate: after December 2016s 5.7%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts it near 3.9% by 2H 2017. Issuance In 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance grew by 5.0% to a record $1.405 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance fell by -3.9% to $339 billion. For 2017, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may dip by -0.7% to $1.394 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may rise by 2.7% to $349 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Alaistair Chan +61 (2) 9270-8148 Alaistair.chan@moodys.com Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.com...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_194015
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
US Downgrades in Energy and Healthcare.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Jobs outlook suggests spreads are too thin31
  Unemployment rate overstates labor market tightness31
  Ratio of jobs to the working-age population outshines other possible inflation indicators41
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific58
  THE US51
    Friday, January 1351
  Producer Price Index December51
    Time: 8:30 am51
    Forecast: 0.3% overall, 0.1% core51
    Higher fuel costs can lead the Producer Price Index to the second straight substantial monthly gain in December. The PPI now points to an end of a disinflationary period, rising at the two-year high rate of 1.3% yearly to November. That trend gives ...51
  Retail Sales December51
    Time: 8:30 am51
    Forecast: 0.7% overall, 0.5% ex auto51
    Rising incomes and a burst in auto sales can lead a strong gain for retail sales in December. Sales have shown some uplift of late, rising 3.8% yearly in the three months ending November the best such result in seven months. But while the rate of re...51
  Business Inventories November51
    Time: 10:00 am51
    Forecast: 0.6%51
    Business inventories are projected to expand in November at the fastest pace in 16 months after sliding in the previous month. The inventories-to-sales ratio of 1.37 in October is the lowest in 15 months, as bloated stockpiles are less of a hindrance...51
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment January Preliminary51
    Time: 10:00 am51
    Forecast: 98.551
    Consumer sentiment in the Michigan survey can reach its highest level in over a decade as post-election optimism persists. Higher fuel costs may have a key role in influencing sentiment indices in the months ahead. Though more expensive fuel can wei...51
    Wednesday, January 1851
  Consumer Price Index December51
    Time: 8:30 am51
    Forecast: 0.3% overall, 0.2% core51
    Higher fuel costs can bring annual growth in the Consumer Price Index above 2% for the first time in over two years. The core CPI had long ago breached that level, as growth in shelter costs in excess of 3% has been a consistent cost pressure for con...51
  Industrial Production &Capacity Utilization December61
    Time: 9:15 am61
    Forecast: 0.6% industrial production, 75.5% capacity utilization61
    Undoing declines in auto and utility sector output can guide industrial production in December to one of the largest monthly increases of the past two years. Warm weather created three consecutive monthly declines of at least 2% in utility sector out...61
  NAHB Housing Market Index January61
    Time: 10:00 am61
    Forecast: 6961
    Homebuilder confidence may dip a bit in January after leaping to the 12-year high in December. Yet based on builder sentiment, 2017 is shaping up for strong gains in residential construction. The index measuring expected sales over the next six mont...61
    Thursday, January 1961
  Housing Starts &Building Permits December61
    Time: 8:30 am61
    Forecast: 1.20 million starts, 1.22 million permits61
    Housing starts look to surge ahead in December after taking a dive in the previous month. Permits rose 32% annualized in the three months ending November against the prior three months, a strong indicator for near-term building activity. That spike ...61
  EUROPE61
    Friday, January 671
  France: Foreign Trade (November; 8:00 a.m. GMT)71
  Euro Zone: Retail Sales (November; 10:00 a.m. GMT)71
  Euro Zone: Business and Consumer Sentiment (December; 10:00 a.m. GMT)71
    Monday, January 981
  Italy: Unemployment (November; 9:00 a.m. GMT)81
  Euro Zone: Unemployment (November; 10:00 a.m. GMT)81
  Germany: Industrial Production (November; 11:00 a.m. GMT)81
    Tuesday, January 1081
  France: Industrial Production (November; 7:45 a.m. GMT)81
    Wednesday, January 1181
  Spain: Industrial Production (November; 8:05 a.m. GMT)81
    Thursday, January 1291
  Euro Zone: Industrial Production (November; 10 a.m. GMT)91
    Friday, January 1391
  Italy: Industrial Production (November; 9:00 a.m. GMT)91
  Asia-Pacific101
    Friday, January 13101
  South Korea Monetary Policy January101
  India Foreign Trade December101
    Monday, January 16101
  China Foreign Direct Investment December101
  Japan Machinery Orders November101
  Japan Industry Activity Indexes November111
  Indonesia Foreign Trade December111
  India Wholesale Price Index December111
    Tuesday, January 17111
  Australia Housing Finance November111
  Singapore Foreign Trade December111
    Wednesday, January 18121
    Thursday, January 19121
  Australia Employment Situation December121
  Indonesia Monetary Policy January121
    Friday, January 20121
  China Fixed Asset Investment December121
  China GDP 2016Q4121
  China Industrial Production December121
  China Retail Sales December121
The Long View134
  Credit spreads131
  The recent high-yield bond spread of 405 bp is less than what is predicted by the spread s macroeconomic drivers and the high-yield EDF metric, but it is wider than what might be inferred from a now below-trend VIX index. The implications for liquidit...131
  Defaults131
  US CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE131
  Through the first 50 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a 4.3% increase for investment-grade and a -6.5% drop for high-yield. US economic outlook141
  EUROPE141
  Asia Pacific152
Ratings Round-Up171
Ratings Round-Up171
Ratings Round-Up181
Market Data194
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications233

Table Of Contents

Moody's Capital Markets Research—Moody's Analytics offers research, unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Credit Looks for US to Realize Potential (Capital Markets Research)" Jan 12, 2017. Alacra Store. May 03, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Credit-Looks-for-US-to-Realize-Potential-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3199>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2017). Credit Looks for US to Realize Potential (Capital Markets Research) Jan 12, 2017. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 03, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Credit-Looks-for-US-to-Realize-Potential-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3199>
  
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