Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite (Capital Markets Research)

Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite (Capital Markets Research)
Published Apr 13, 2017
25 pages — Published Apr 13, 2017
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK APRIL 13, 2017 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH Moodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page. Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2 The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, A recent climb by the VIX index to its most risk averse reading since Election Day will help to slow bond issuance from Q1-2017s torrid pace, begin on page 13. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Upgrade Ratio Still Positive. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: South Africa, yields, Venezuela, equity, eurozone, hike, global, profits, Korea, Caa, yes, hike, VIX, rates, France, demography, boom, Japan, reform, India. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23 Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2017 spread to exceed its recent 126 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 412 bp, it may approximate 480 bp by year-end 2017. Defaults US HY default rate: after March 2017s 4.7%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts it near 2.9% during 2018s first quarter. Issuance In 2016, US$-IG bond issuance grew by 5.6% to a record $1.412 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance fell by -3.5% to $341 billion. For 2017, US$-IG bond issuance may rise by 4.8% to a new zenith of $1.468 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may increase by 16.9% to $398 billion but still lag 2014s $435 billion zenith. Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li 1.212.553.1404 xian.li@moodys.com Moody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.com Moody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Katrina Ell +6...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_195343
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Upgrade Ratio Still Positive.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Market expects profits to again outpace corporate debt21
  Credit often gets pummeled when profits shrink while debt grows31
  Credit survived mid-1980s drop by profits amid rapid debt growth31
  High-yield downgrades eclipse upgrades when focusing on fundamentals31
  Recent high-yield spread implies the market expects more upgrades than downgrades41
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific58
  THE US51
    Thursday, April 1351
  Jobless claims (week ending April 8; 8:30 a.m. EDT)51
  University of Michigan survey (March-prelim; 10:00 a.m. EDT)51
    Friday, April 1451
  Consumer price index (March; 8:30 a.m. EDT)51
  Retail sales (March; 8:30 a.m. EDT)51
  EUROPE61
    Thursday, April 1361
  Germany: Consumer Price Index (March; 7:10 a.m. BST)71
  France: Consumer Price Index (March; 8:15 a.m. BST)71
    Friday, April 1471
    Monday, April 1771
    Tuesday, April 1871
    Wednesday, April 1971
  Euro Zone: External Trade (February; 10:00 a.m. BST)71
  Euro Zone: Consumer Price Index (March; 10:00 a.m. BST)71
  Russia: Retail Sales (March; 3:00 p.m. BST)81
    Thursday, April 2081
    Friday, April 2181
  U.K.: Retail Sales (March; 9:30 a.m. BST)81
  Spain: Foreign Trade (February; 9:30 a.m. BST)81
  Asia-Pacific91
    Thursday, April 1391
  China Foreign Trade March91
  South Korea Monetary Policy April91
  Australia Employment Situation March91
    Friday, April 14101
  Singapore GDP - Advanced 2017Q1101
  India Wholesale Price Index March101
    Monday, April 17101
  Indonesia Foreign Trade March101
  India Foreign Trade March101
  Singapore Foreign Trade March101
  China Fixed Asset Investment March111
  China GDP 2017Q1111
  China Industrial Production March111
  China Retail Sales March111
    Tuesday, April 18111
    Wednesday, April 19111
    Thursday, April 20111
  New Zealand Consumer Price Index 2017Q1111
  Japan Foreign Trade March121
  Indonesia Monetary Policy April121
    Friday, April 21121
  Japan Industry Activity Indexes February121
The Long View134
  Credit spreads131
  The recent high-yield bond spread of 412 bp is less than what is inferred from the spread s macroeconomic drivers and the high-yield EDF metric, and a now near-trend VIX index. The implications for liquidity of regulatory changes merit scrutiny. If r...131
  Defaults131
  US CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE131
  US Economic Outlook141
  EUROPE141
  Asia Pacific152
Ratings Round-Up171
Ratings Round-Up171
Ratings Round-Up181
Market Data194
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications233

Table Of Contents

Moody's Capital Markets Research—Moody's Analytics offers research, unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite (Capital Markets Research)" Apr 13, 2017. Alacra Store. Mar 28, 2024. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Credit-Cycle-Enjoys-a-Respite-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3242>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2017). Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite (Capital Markets Research) Apr 13, 2017. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Mar 28, 2024 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Credit-Cycle-Enjoys-a-Respite-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3242>
  
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