WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKMARCH 3, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Aging Business Cycle to Limit RallyCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Aging Business Cycle to Limit Rally. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber M&A Boom Weathers the Storm.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 8 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, A preliminary tally for Februarys US$-denominated corporate bond issuance shows investment-grade sinking by -14.2% annually, to $103.9 billion, as high-yield plummets by -65.3% annually, to $15.1 billion, begin on page 17. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh More Angels Fell. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: PNC, bank risk, energy co. risk, Venezuela, upturn, TOY, Portugal, spreads, Citi, Hess, CoCos, Anadarko, Apache, T-bonds, MRO. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 26Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be less than its recent 177 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 749 bp, it may approximate 725 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: after January 2016s 3.1%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 4.7% by January 2017.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.297 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance sank by -19.5% to $289 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may rise by 7.2.% to $1.422 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may plunge by -19.2% to $286 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/As...
