We are maintaining our hydropower forecasts made in the last quarter. We expect that hydropower will remain Zambia s dominant source of electricity generation, producing more than -- of total electricity output over our ---year forecast period. ...We forecast that units - and - will come online in ----. Standard Chartered Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have partnered to provide a USD--mn loan to the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (Zesco) to finance expenditure for the rehabilitation of Lusaka s transmission and distribution network. The first phase of a project to connect Tanzania to the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) is underway, which will be done via Zambia. ...With the latest tender, up to --MW capacity of solar power contracts has been awarded. With the increase in renewables investment in Zambia, we will be including a renewables forecast piece with our reports from next quarter.
...We forecast that Zambia s hydropower generation will total -.-TWh in ----, increasing at an average annual rate of -.- to reach --.-TWh at the end of our forecast period in ----. Hydropower s share of total generation will decrease from -- in ---- to -- in ----. ...New capacity that we factor into generation forecasts will be provided by the --- megawatt (MW) Itezhi Tezhi hydropower plant and the ---MW Kafue Gorge hydropower plant. Itezhi Tezhi has been commissioned after initial delays because of labour disputes, but due to a lack of rainfall we are only factoring in the additional generation of -.--TWh from ---- onwards. We expect that the Kafue Gorge plant will be commissioned in ----. ...We expect that the Kafue Gorge plant will be commissioned in ----. With a capacity of ---MW, Kafue Gorge will add up to -.-TWh of electricity generation to the Zambian power sector.
...BMI View: Hydropower will remain the dominant source of electricity output in Zambia over our ---year forecast period. Despite an increase in overall capacity offered, high reliance on hydropower means the Zambian power sector will remain exposed to power cuts should droughts or periods of lower rainfall occur. ...
