� Business Monitor International Ltd Page - team has become more negative on the outlook for GDP growth over ----/--, when compared with the preceding two-year period. Economic activity will weaken, impacted by stagnant exports, a cooling residential construction market, and slowing household consumption growth. ...The first two risks are interlinked: namely Brexit and the resultant impact on global trade. We believe that the direct impact on the Swedish economy of a so-called hard Brexit (ie, the UK s departure from the EU s Single Market and its associated requirement for the free movement of people) could be significant, as the UK is Sweden s fourth-largest export market. However, such effects are likely to be longer-term in nature, and will depend on the final trade arrangement that the UK reaches with the EU. ...We project a slowdown in household consumption growth to -.- in ------- on average, compared with -.- in -------. This fact, coupled with high household debt levels, should lead to a slowdown in demand for new vehicles over the coming -- months.
...Across our forecast period to ----, we are targeting --.- growth in new vehicle sales, to reach over ---,--- units by ----. We are expecting stronger sales growth from passenger cars (--.- ) than commercial vehicles (--.- ) over the forecast period. ...All told, this made for a total vehicle sales market of ---,--- units. Commercial Vehicle Sales By Type (---------) Light commercial vehicle sales, units Heavy truck sales, units Bus and coach sales, units ---- ---- ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f - --,--- --,--- --,--- ---,--- f = BMI forecast. Commercial vehicle sales fared slightly less strongly, rising -.- y-o-y to --,--- units. ...Commercial Vehicle Sales By Type (---------) Light commercial vehicle sales, units Heavy truck sales, units Bus and coach sales, units ---- ---- ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f - --,--- --,--- --,--- ---,--- f = BMI forecast.
...Breaking down the headline figure, passenger car sales grew by - , to ---,--- units. ...Against this backdrop of strong sales and robust demand, we maintain our forecast of -.- growth for the current year. However, moving forward, we are now flagging up some potential downside risks to the economy (and, by extension new car sales), which could see sales growth slow significantly in ----. On the commercial vehicle side, light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales grew by --.- , to --,--- units, while heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) sales grew by --.- , to -,--- units. ...
