Our hydropower forecasts remain unchanged from the last quarter. A lack of updates on hydropower construction means we might revisit our forecasts for the ---MW Kajbar dam if we do not see any evidence of its completion. We are maintaining our thermal power forecasts since last quarter for Sudan. A lack of updates on newly planned thermal projects, in particular the potential -,---MW thermal power plant planned by Sudan and Saudi Arabia, means we do not forecast any changes in thermal power generation until the end of our forecast period in ----. The Ethiopian government is reportedly planning on exporting up to ---MW of electricity to Sudan after the completion of Ethiopia s Gibe III hydropower plant. ...The Ethiopian government is reportedly planning on exporting up to ---MW of electricity to Sudan after the completion of Ethiopia s Gibe III hydropower plant. The Ethiopian government is also reportedly considering establishing connections with South Sudan, which will enable the country to have a more stable source of electricity generation until it can get its own power capacity online.
...The Kajbar dam has been announced to come online earlier, but we are including a two-year delay due to local opposition to the dam. We therefore forecast the dam to come online in ----. ...We therefore forecast the dam to come online in ----. The dam is being constructed on Nubian grounds, which will allegedly result in the flooding of Nubian cultural sites and displace thousands of people. Protests have occurred before in ----, resulting in the deaths of four people. ...We do not forecast the dam to be cancelled, and therefore we are only including a delay. However, we do note that the possibility of a cancellation does exist, and we will monitor progress on the dam closely.
...BMI View: The Sudanese power sector will continue to be dominated by hydropower generation over our ---year forecast period due to investment focus on constructing hydropower capacity on the Nile. High hydropower focus means Sudan will remain vulnerable to power cuts as a result of droughts, while lack of new capacity means power generation growth will stagnate after ----. ...
