� Business Monitor International Ltd Page - between ---- and ----, we expect the focus of the GTP II (the details of which are yet to be released) will be the same - improving infrastructure and attracting the necessary capital investment. As noted by our Country Risks team, the landslide general election victory for the ruling Ethiopian people s Revolutionary Democratic Front in May ---- will ensure policy continuity, thereby supporting the GTP. ...As noted by our Country Risks team, the landslide general election victory for the ruling Ethiopian people s Revolutionary Democratic Front in May ---- will ensure policy continuity, thereby supporting the GTP. Industry expansion in Nigeria will be driven by the government s expansionary infrastructure budget; anticipated financing from either Chinese or international institutional loans; and attempts to leverage private financing vis-a-vis the public-private partnership (PPP) model. We note, however, persistent low oil prices and the weak currency - the naira is expected to devalue by -- in ---- - will weigh on the potential of the market, leading it to underperform historic growth rates. ...The government will need to increase its borrowing domestically and internationally to finance its expansionary budget, which we regard as feasible given its comparatively stable fiscal outlook in SSA. It will, however, struggle to attract foreign direct investment as one of the most difficult and dangerous environments for investors in
...BMI View: Over the next five years the Ethiopian construction market will post the strongest growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, followed by Nigeria, as both governments direct significant funding to improving transport and energy infrastructure, and capitalise on funding flows from China. Kenya and Cameroon will also expand significantly between ---- and ----, supported by efforts to improve freight logistics capacity and private sector participation in key projects. ...Kenya and Cameroon will also expand significantly between ---- and ----, supported by efforts to improve freight logistics capacity and private sector participation in key projects. The Ethiopian and Nigerian construction markets will post the strongest performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over our five-year forecast period, with double-digit growth rates well above the regional average of -.- . Both markets will be supported by significant government spending and substantial interest from Chinese firms. We also highligh Kenya and Cameroon as growth outperformers, both expected to average annual growth of -.- in real terms between ---- and ----. Above the regional average, although slightly less impressive, are Tanzania, Uganda, Namibia and Cote d Ivoire, at around the - mark Table: SSA - Construction Industry Real Growth Forecasts, chg y-o-y ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f
...The Kenyan and Cameroonian construction markets are forecast to average annual growth of -.- in real terms over the next five years, supported by increased government spending and private sector involvement. Both markets boast well developed PPP frameworks, which have been critical in attracting and sustaining private investment (see Increasing Turn To PPPs As Traditional Funding Wanes , November -). ...
