Nigeria - Vehicle sales, units Nigeria - Vehicle production, units ----e ----e ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f - --,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI At the other end of the spectrum, Nigeria will be one of the worst affected by a combination of currency weakness, delays to its budget and attacks on oil pipelines, leading our Country Risk team to significantly revise down their GDP forecast (see Growth Will Be Slowest In Decades , June -). ...Nigeria - Vehicle sales, units Nigeria - Vehicle production, units ----e ----e ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f - --,--- --,--- --,--- --,--- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI At the other end of the spectrum, Nigeria will be one of the worst affected by a combination of currency weakness, delays to its budget and attacks on oil pipelines, leading our Country Risk team to significantly revise down their GDP forecast (see Growth Will Be Slowest In Decades , June -). We already hold a very negative outlook for Nigerian vehicle sales, forecasting a --.- contraction in ---- as consumers face higher prices of imports due to the weak naira and rising running costs following the removal of fuel subsidies (see Fuel Price Hike Adds To Auto Industry Woes , May --). ...We already hold a very negative outlook for Nigerian vehicle sales, forecasting a --.- contraction in ---- as consumers face higher prices of imports due to the weak naira and rising running costs following the removal of fuel subsidies (see Fuel Price Hike Adds To Auto Industry Woes , May --). Although the government has been promoting domestic manufacturing to address the issue of providing affordable new vehicles, we do not believe the market is developed enough to cope with the moves against imports (see Consumers Not Ready
...One of the key themes in West Africa is the divergence in both economic and vehicle sales performance between the heavily commodity-reliant economies and those that are more diversified. Those that are not as reliant on income from oil and other commodities in this period of low prices are in better shape economically for both consumers and businesses to spend on big ticket items. ...Those that are not as reliant on income from oil and other commodities in this period of low prices are in better shape economically for both consumers and businesses to spend on big ticket items. One such example is Cameroon, which we forecast to enjoy robust economic growth as a result of its diversification and associated infrastructure projects (see Strong Growth Ahead As Government Investment Improves Production , April -). The resulting demand for heavy-duty vehicles means we expect the commercial vehicle segment to outperform passenger car sales, but the market as a whole will register steady growth of -.- in ----. ...One such example is Cameroon, which we forecast to enjoy robust economic growth as a result of its diversification and associated infrastructure projects (see Strong Growth Ahead As Government Investment Improves Production , April -). The resulting demand for heavy-duty vehicles means we expect the commercial vehicle segment to outperform passenger car sales, but the market as a whole will register steady growth of -.- in ----.
...South Africa --.- --.- -.- -.- -.- -.- f = BMI forecast; Source: National sources, BMI Uganda is a possible exception to this East African growth story, however, because we believe the recently implemented environmental taxes on used car imports will not necessarily drive consumers toward the new car market as intended. Given that the country has the lowest GDP per capita of the sub-region - forecast by our Country Risk team to be USD--- in ---- compared with USD-,--- in Kenya and USD--- in Tanzania - we believe the higher cost of used imports will force consumers out of the market altogether (see Environmental Tax Fuelling Slow Car Sales , February -). ...
