We maintain our mobile subscriber forecast for Rwanda, which we expect to grow at an average of - over ---------. The rate of growth, estimated at -.- in ----, is forecast to slow in the coming years, averaging -.- in ---- as growth in the number of subscribers levels off. ...In June, representatives of both Tiga and MTV said that deactivation of wrongly registered SIM cards and deregistration of customers who own multiple phone numbers, was responsible for a fall in the number of subscribers in May. Our -G forecast for Rwanda, which estimates -G subscriptions accounted for --.- of total mobile subscribers in ----, expects the proportion of -G subscriptions as a percentage of total subscriptions to rise to just over -- in ----. We estimate a total of -,--- fixed telephone lines at end----- and we forecast the total number of fixed subscribers will stabilise around this figure. ...We forecast around ---,--- broadband subscriptions in Rwanda by ----, a penetration rate of almost -.- . This is up from ---,--- subscriptions at the end of ----, equivalent to -.-- penetration.
...We expect the Rwandan mobile market to maintain positive growth throughout our forecast period through to ---- due to strong competition between MTN, Tigo and Airtel, as well as an expanding economy. By the end of ---- we expect the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to --.--mn. ...By the end of ---- we expect the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to --.--mn. Although mobile average revenues per user (ARPUs) are currently falling, we expect the decline to level off and trend towards positive growth on the back of the growing uptake of mobile data services. We maintain a positive growth outlook for Rwanda s broadband sector, based on government investment in terrestrial fibre optic infrastructure and operator investment in LTE networks. ...By ----, we expect Rwanda to have around --,--- fixed lines and a penetration rate of -.-- . The ---- subscriptions data came in lower than we forecast, with the regulator attributing this decrease to CDMA and inactive fixed telephones disconnection and the substitution to mobile, resulting in a downwards revision to our growth forecast.
...BMI View: Mobile subscriber growth in Rwanda is expected to remain robust, owing to the healthy competition that exists between the country s three network operators, MTN, Tigo and Airtel. In addition, growing demand for data services and the availability of new low-cost internet-enabled devices should positively impact on -G and -G subscriber uptake, as well as the growth of data revenues. ...
