Our in-house Country Risk team is forecasting a macroeconomic recession in ----, with real GDP contracting by -.- . Annual GDP growth will begin to track upwards from ---- onwards out to ----, posting average annual growth of around -.- as macroeconomic headwinds begin to subside. Based on latest market data, the Nigerian mobile market lost ---,--- subscribers in H--- to bring total connections to ---.--mn with a penetration rate of --.- . We believe that mobile market growth will be lacklustre in ---- due to the broader macroeconomic slowdown and inactive discounting but begin to pick up pace beyond ---- as the prospects improve in the country out to ----. We estimate the mobile market will end ---- with approximately ---.--mn subscribers. ...We forecast that ---.-mn subscribers by the end of ---- will be -G and -G enabled. Broadband internet connections will rise steadily, from an estimated --.--mn at the end of ---- to a forecast --.--mn at the end of ----.
...Nigerian mobile subscriptions reached ---.-mn by the end of Q---, up -.- y-o-y, with penetration reaching --.- . In Q---, the mobile sector contracted by -.- , with the total customer base shrinking by -.--mn. ...However, as in Q---, both MTN and Etisalat experienced declining customer bases. Q--- saw the market returning to growth by adding over -.-mn new subscribers We currently expect the number of -G and -G customers to rise to about --.-mn by the end of ----, equivalent to --.- of the mobile subscriber base, rising to ---.-mn by the end of ----, equivalent to --.- of the market. MTN and the government of Nigeria agreed in June that the operator will pay a fine of NGN---bn (USD-.---bn), down from the original fine of USD-.-bn, for failing to disconnect unregistered SIMs. Further reducing the burden to a manageable level for the operator, MTN will pay the fine over a period of three years. MTN is considering issuing an IPO to raise an estimated USD-.-bn to pay for the fine.
...Subscription growth in the mobile market remains driven by factors including operators promotional activities, multiple SIM ownership and the extension of network coverage to underserved areas. The latest market data published by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) shows that total Nigerian mobile subscriptions grew by --.--mn in FY--, compared to --.--mn growth in FY--. ...
