Many of the traditionally strong markets in the region, particularly in the states of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) will suffer in the low oil price environment, which has promoted a downgrade to the sales forecasts of several of these countries. The net result is a projected -.- decline in vehicle sales in ----, before a relatively slow correction to growth of -.- in ----. We forecast a -.- drop in regional passenger car sales, compared with a --.- decline in commercial vehicle (CV) sales. This is reflective of the cutbacks in government spending on infrastructure projects around the region, especially in the GCC, which had been a key driver of demand for CVs. The impact of oil prices becomes evident when comparing the outlook for oil importers and exporters. By splitting the GCC and North Africa, we get a good picture of this divergence. Iran is an outlier in terms of oil exporters, as pent-up demand from the sanctions period will translate into solid growth over our forecast period and particularly in ---- as the first movers take advantage of market access (see Iran Free To Join
...Our forecast for a -.- drop in total vehicle sales in North Africa is not entirely representative of the market s performance. Generally the market is much more positive in the oil importing North African states, but the size and significance of the fragile Egyptian market is weighing on the region s aggregate growth. ...Our forecast for a -.- drop in total vehicle sales in North Africa is not entirely representative of the market s performance. Generally the market is much more positive in the oil importing North African states, but the size and significance of the fragile Egyptian market is weighing on the region s aggregate growth. With Egypt excluded, we forecast -.- growth in vehicle sales, which shows the extent to which Egypt s troubles are impacting the regional outlook. We forecast a --.- decline in Egyptian vehicle sales in ----, led by a --.- contraction in passenger vehicle sales. The market is being hampered by a mix of weak economic fundamentals that are squeezing the consumer, such as a weak currency, high inflation and a lack of job opportunities, and industry specific issues, including a shortage of foreign currency for manufacturers and free trade agreements making imports more competitive (see Weak Consumer Outlook To Drag On Passenger Vehicle Sales , May --).
...A downgrade of all GCC state sales forecasts against the backdrop of sustained low oil prices, has had the effect of turning one of the best performing regions into a contraction of -.- in ----. A wave of price increases across --- models in Egypt in July poses a further risk to our already downbeat forecast for a --.- decline in passenger car sales in ----, followed by a further -.- contraction in ----. ...
