Here, we identify Ecuador, Colombia and Peru as those most exposed to this challenge. Declines in vehicle sales for the year-to-date (see chart above) have remained in line with our yearly ---- vehicle sales forecasts of a --.- and --.- decline in Ecuador and Colombia, respectively, alongside only marginal growth of -.- in Peru s vehicle market. ...Declines in vehicle sales for the year-to-date (see chart above) have remained in line with our yearly ---- vehicle sales forecasts of a --.- and --.- decline in Ecuador and Colombia, respectively, alongside only marginal growth of -.- in Peru s vehicle market. Falling oil revenues have continued to not only weaken investment and employment in Ecuador but have also led to a series of trade and currency restrictions that are negatively impacting the operations of dealerships and vehicle assemblers in the country (see Protracted Oil Slump Forcing Vehicle Sales Down , April --). Colombia and Peru are facing similar but less acute pressures meaning they have fared only marginally better but have still shown limited signs of a significant rebound in vehicle demand from consumers or businesses. ...As economic growth in North America continuously raises demand for services, especially tourism, and manufactured goods imports, exporters of these goods in Mexico and Central America are benefiting measurably, which in turn is boosting employment and consumer spending. At the same time, private consumption in Central America is being boosted by the growing inflows of remittances, which are helping households raise the capital for a
...A stronger-than-expected rebound in Argentina has seen an upwards revision in our regional sales growth forecast for ---- and ---- to --.- and -.- respectively from --.- and -.- previously This means Latin America is no longer the worst performing region in ---- and will be the second-best performer behind only MENA in ---- Argentina s sales are being driven by dealers restocking after import controls were lifted, but we expect the effects of this to be lessening by ----, meaning the bulk of the revision to Argentina s sales forecast comes in ----, when we now expect sales to increase --.- Toyota has restarted production in Venezuela, but we do not expect this to be the beginning of a wider trend among carmakers and as such our production forecast for the country stays at ---.- for ---- before a marginal increase of -.- in ---- Uncertainty around emission standards for heavy commercial vehicles in Mexico means the spike we had anticipated in ---- prior to the implementation of the new standards will be pushed back and may call for a downward revision of our ---- forecast depending on how long delays last Labour tensions in Brazil are providing a risk to vehicle production and inventories, and based on the strong correlation between domestic production and sales, are also posing a threat to our vehicle sales forecast of --.- in ---- and a return to growth of -.- in ---- ...
...A comparison of our regional vehicle sales forecasts for ---- shows that Latin America will be the second to last region in terms of vehicle sales growth, declining -.- to -.-mn units. An upward revision to our regional forecasts means that ---- will now be a much better year, with growth of -.- forecast, ranking the region behind only Middle East and North Africa (MENA). ...An upward revision to our regional forecasts means that ---- will now be a much better year, with growth of -.- forecast, ranking the region behind only Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Latin America: An Improved Outlook Vehicle Sales Forecasts, chg y-o-y Global - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Sub Saharan (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Asia (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Europe (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Latin America (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y MENA (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y ---- ----f ----f --- - -- --- f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI The reasons for the still relatively downbeat outlook in ---- revolve around two dominant trends: Weak global prices for commodities reducing the growth prospects of commodity export-reliant economies The slowdown in the region s largest market, Brazil, which is bringing down demand domestically and in the economies that closely orbit Brazil such as Paraguay and Uruguay There are however, exceptions to these rules such as in Argentina and Chile, which each are benefitting from economic restructuring. ...Latin America: An Improved Outlook Vehicle Sales Forecasts, chg y-o-y Global - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Sub Saharan (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Asia (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Europe (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y Latin America (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y MENA (Region) - Vehicle sales, units, y-o-y ---- ----f ----f --- - -- --- f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI The reasons for the still relatively downbeat outlook in ---- revolve around two dominant trends: Weak global prices for commodities reducing the growth prospects of commodity export-reliant economies The slowdown in the region s largest market, Brazil, which is bringing down demand domestically and in the economies that closely orbit Brazil such as Paraguay and Uruguay There are however, exceptions to these rules such as in Argentina and Chile, which each are benefitting from economic restructuring.
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