WIND and - Italia received approval from European antitrust authorities for their proposed merger in September ----. The combined entity is expected to invest over EUR-bn in developing its joint network infrastructure as it is set to become Italy s largest mobile operator catering to over --mn subscribers. ...We predict that the mobile subscriber base will decrease every year until ----, reaching --.--mn customers. We have positively revised our -G/-G growth rate for Italy and are of the view that there will be approximately --.-mn -G/-G phones in the country by YE--, a number we see growing to over --mn by end of ---- when it will represent around --.-- of the mobile market. According to new data from Italian regulator AGCOM, there were --.--mn fixed broadband connections at the end of ----. Including mobile broadband connections, we estimate that total broadband connections numbered --.--mn at the end of ----, a figure we forecast to continue to grow, reaching --.--mn in ----. However, the majority of these are ADSL connections, and we believe the market will continue to struggle to develop more advanced technologies.
...WIND and - Italia received regulatory approval for their proposed merger in September ----. The joint entity is expected to be the largest mobile carrier serving over --mn subscribers and accounting for over a third of the market. ...We predict that the Italian mobile subscriber base will decrease every year until ----, reaching --.--mn customers for a penetration rate of ---.- . We maintain our view that the fixed voice market will continue to decline, in line with the rest of the region, with a potential risk coming from service bundles, a phenomenon that has offset some losses in other markets. The broadband market will continue to grow in the five years to ----. ...The broadband market will continue to grow in the five years to ----. However, we believe that migration as opposed to new users will represent the majority of connections, which are now forecast to reach --.--mn or --.- of the population by ----.
...BMI View: The Italian mobile market is saturated and the penetration rates of over --- give testament to the maturity of the market. However, the market also supports a large number of inactive prepaid accounts and the quarterly reduction of such accounts from subscriber data will result in negative market growth over our five year forecast. ...
