BMI View: While developed states will be largely driving vehicle sales growth in ----, the tables will turn in ---- as the majority of struggling emerging markets see a correction in sales. Table: Global Historical Data And Forecasts ---- ---- ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f World vehicle production, units, mn ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- World vehicle production, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World passenger car production, units, mn --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- World passenger car production, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World commercial vehicle production, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- World commercial vehicle production, units, y-o-y -.- --.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World vehicle sales, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- World vehicle sales, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World passenger car sales, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- World passenger car sales, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World commercial vehicle sales, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- World commercial vehicle sales, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- f = BMI forecast. ...BMI View: While developed states will be largely driving vehicle sales growth in ----, the tables will turn in ---- as the majority of struggling emerging markets see a correction in sales. Table: Global Historical Data And Forecasts ---- ---- ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f World vehicle production, units, mn ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- World vehicle production, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World passenger car production, units, mn --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- World passenger car production, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World commercial vehicle production, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- World commercial vehicle production, units, y-o-y -.- --.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World vehicle sales, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- World vehicle sales, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World passenger car sales, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- World passenger car sales, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- World commercial vehicle sales, units, mn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- World commercial vehicle sales, units, y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI Global autos sales will show a marked improvement in ----, growing -.- compared with -.- in ----. ...More specifically, we expect the compact SUV/crossover market to be a segment leader and this is already reshaping some markets, such as Canada, where consumers are migrating from cars to smaller SUVs (see Small SUVs Change Market Balance , June -). The growth of the SUV segment is also proving to be a lifeline in markets where passenger vehicle sales would otherwise be slowing or contracting, such as China (see SUVs And NEVs Drive Passenger Car Segment , June -).
...Source: National sources Our forecast for a -.- drop in total vehicle sales in North Africa is not entirely representative of the market s performance. ...We also see Iran being one of the outperformers over our entire five-year forecast period. A combination of a young and sophisticated consumer base, and growth in the construction and hydrocarbon industries, will ensure that both the passenger car and CV segments offer growth opportunities for autos firms. We forecast annual vehicle sales growth to average --.- from ---- to ----. ...A combination of a young and sophisticated consumer base, and growth in the construction and hydrocarbon industries, will ensure that both the passenger car and CV segments offer growth opportunities for autos firms. We forecast annual vehicle sales growth to average --.- from ---- to ----.
...As we highlighted back in mid-----, the CEE region s consumers will remain in a spending sweet spot that will boost spending on vehicles to new highs (see CEE To Become An Oasis For Car Sales , August -- ----). Increasing employment, rising wages, a low interest rate environment and low household indebtedness are all combining to encourage spending on new big ticket items. ...Increasing employment, rising wages, a low interest rate environment and low household indebtedness are all combining to encourage spending on new big ticket items. This narrative has played out most strongly in the Czech Republic and Romania where spending has been boosted particularly by rising applications of auto loans (see Borrowing And Replacement Will Spur Sales Growth , June -). In Western Europe, sales will benefit from similar dynamics to Central Eastern Europe, such as rising employment and low interest rates encouraging borrowing, but to a less intense level. ...
