BMI View: We have made some forecast revisions to our Q--- outlook but our core view remains unchanged. The mobile market witnessed contraction in ---- as operators shed inactive SIMs. ...Separately, government-backed Telecom Egypt reportedly aimed to replace copper cables with fibre optic cables for approximately -mn households by the end of ----. The move would allow TE to provide its subscribers with the latest communication services and techniques via boosting the role of fibre optic cables instead of the copper ones, along with installing multi-service access nodes. We are predicting strong and steady growth in the uptake of broadband services, including wireline and mobile broadband offering, through to ----. ...We are predicting strong and steady growth in the uptake of broadband services, including wireline and mobile broadband offering, through to ----. Improvements to infrastructure will contribute to the strong growth.
...Our outlook for Egypt s mobile market in ---- remains relatively subdued. We predict growth of -.-- in the -- months to December ----. By ----, we forecast the market to be serving --.--mn subscriptions, yielding a penetration rate of -- . Telecom Egypt is expected to become the fourth major mobile operator in the country as the fixed line incumbent provider paid over USD---mn to become the first operator to procure the first national -G LTE spectrum licence. The regulator is aggressively looking to raise cash for the strapped Cairo government by selling -G licences. ...In Egypt s fixed-line sector we believe fixed-to-mobile substitution will continue at pace and we forecast the market to decline at an average annual rate of -.-- between ---- and ----. We predict that the number of broadband connections will reach -.--mn by ----, equivalent to a penetration rate of -.- .
...BMI View: We have made some positive revisions to our Egyptian mobile market forecast to account for positive growth in H--- and to account for the issuing of the nation s first -G licence. We are anticipating that mobile growth will reverse from slow contraction witnessed in ---- and return towards mild growth in ----, reflecting the impact of Telecom Egypt s planned entry into mobile services. ...
