Mobile market growth is beginning to cool in terms of organic subscriber numbers as historic growth rates become unsustainable. BMI estimates that the mobile market grew by -.- y-o-y in Q---, with total subscribers reaching --.--mn and the penetration rate crossing ---.- . ...Out to ----, we forecast a total of --.--mn total subscribers, up from an estimated -.--mn at the end of ----. We expect the -G and -G LTE segment to perform well in the market with the total number of -G and -G connections increasing from an estimated --.--mn at the end of ---- to over --.-mn by the end of our forecast period in ----. We predict that the fixed-line voice sector will contract annually with numbers reaching -.-mn by the end of ----. ...We are also anticipating higher uptake of MVNOs in the market as the Communications Regulation Commission is taking legislative steps to facilitate the easier entry and simplified operation of MVNOs in the market. MVNOs will exert downward pressure on Claro and Movistar, forcing ARPUs lower as competition in the low-cost and niche segments heats up.
...The market is poised to enter into a period of change as new regulation will allow MVNOs to enter into the market and compete more easily. We have left our forecasts for the mobile market unchanged but we have revised estimates pertaining to the uptake of -G and -G technologies in the market positively. ...We have left our forecasts for the mobile market unchanged but we have revised estimates pertaining to the uptake of -G and -G technologies in the market positively. The market has performed exceptionally well in terms of growth in ---- but we believe that organic growth opportunities may begin to slow as the penetration rate inches higher. This was indicated by one quarter of negative subscription growth in ----. ...The intensity of competition in the mobile market will further increase and place downward pressure on large operator revenues and ARPUs.
...Mobile Phone Subscribers/--- Inhabitants -G & -G phone subscribers, --- ----e ----e ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f - --,--- --,--- --,--- --- --- ---.- ---.- --- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: national sources, BMI BMI View: We have made some minor forecast revisions for the Colombian mobile market in the Q--- quarterly report update. ...
