Source: BMI economic situation could regress to the state it was in ----, the last time ZANU-PF was in complete control. While we think that a reversion to the economic and political chaos of the early ----s is unlikely, we believe that the path ahead for Zimbabwe remains shrouded in uncertainty. ...Reform of the judiciary and security services will therefore be vital if the new constitution is to have the positive impact that was intended by its introduction. Relations With The West: Relations between ZANU-PF and Western governments over the last -- years have been characterised by antagonism, with the United States and Euro- pean Union having imposed targeted sanctions, which mainly consist of travel bans and asset freezes on individuals and entities associated with the ZANU-PF regime. Because the US bill includes a directive for the country s representatives at multilateral lending agencies to vote against any extension of credit to the Zimbabwean government, Mugabe and ZANU-PF have claimed the sanctions were the main reason for economic decline during the early ----s. ...Mugabe has been reluctant to anoint a successor, most probably due to the fact that this could weaken his own position, but there are reportedly two main factions within the party that are vying for the helm.
...If Mugabe and the party continue to avoid the succession issue, the battle to succeed him could become destabilising both for the party and the country in the event that he dies or becomes incapacitated. The identity of the eventual successor also stands to impact Zimbabwe s political and economic trajectory. ...In any case, it is unlikely that the appetite for such an uprising exists among ordinary Zimba- bweans. Although the opposition claims the ---- election was rigged, the magnitude of the ZANU-PF s victory suggests that the party and Mugabe would have won even in the absence of alleged rigging, and there is little doubt that the party continues to enjoy considerable popular support. Furthermore, the fact that Zimbabweans did not rise up earlier in the decade when supermarket shelves were empty, inflation was soaring and the local currency was worthless, suggests that mass action is not something that citizens will resort to easily. ...Furthermore, the fact that Zimbabweans did not rise up earlier in the decade when supermarket shelves were empty, inflation was soaring and the local currency was worthless, suggests that mass action is not something that citizens will resort to easily. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
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