ZMWbn -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Private final consumption, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Private final consumption, real growth y-o-y -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: UN/BMI in the country, which are transforming individual s capacity to save and consume. ...Net Exports: An undeveloped manufacturing sector will see net exports continue to detract from overall GDP growth, with an average contribution of --.-pp from ---- to ----. The country suffers from a bad case of Dutch Disease, and while the govern- ment has made some efforts to diversify the economy into other sectors, the copper industry remains the dominant source of export revenue, typically accounting for -- of annual exports from ---- to ----. However, our Mining team have forecast that the price of copper will make a slow recovery over the next five years which will negatively impact copper revenues. Eco- nomic growth will continue to be reliant on goods and services imported into Zambia as long as the country fails to diversify away from the copper industry.
...Real GDP growth in Zambia will remain subdued in ---- at -.- due to a struggling copper industry and persistent power shortages. Private consumption will be restrained by higher interest rates and food costs stemming from a weak currency. Fiscal consolidation efforts by the Zambian government will help to minimally narrow the budget deficit for ---- to -.- of GDP. The government has also revised the mining tax regime to better accommodate the falling copper prices, although another revision leading to inconsistent policies will weigh on investor sentiment. Various macroeconomic and domestic challenges will make it easier for opposition leader, Hakainde Hichilema to secure a win in the next presidential elections, taking place in August ----. ...The Zambian kwacha will continue its trend of depreciation in ---- on the basis of a weak outlook for the country s copper industry. The lack of a stronger reserve arsenal means the central bank will have little in the way of ammunition to halt an expected --.- fall in the currency s value by year-end ----.
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