Source: BMI, Banco Central de Venezuela, BMI as Venezuela faces declining oil revenues � the government s main source of revenue � as oil production continues to slip due to mismanagement and underinvestment. Moreover, the rising support for the opposition coalition, Mesa de la Unidad Democratica (MUD), particularly since Chavez s passing, could see a change in government within the next ten years. ...Below, we present several scenarios for how the country could evolve politically over the coming decade, and identify several central challenges and issues which are likely to have a bearing on its leaders. scenarios For political change Referendum Recall As Early As ----: Maduro s below -.- margin of victory in the April -- presidential election, the tightest Venezuelan election since ----, will likely motivate the MUD to demand a recall referendum, an option the opposition pursued in ----, albeit unsuccessfully. Under article -- of the constitu- tion, once the first half of the six-year presidential term elapses, the opposition may petition a recall referendum with signatures from -- of registered voters. ...However, we expect this factor to be gradually superseded by Maduro s handling of Venezuela s economic challenges, leading us to believe that his popularity will decline significantly. This in- creases the likelihood of an internal power struggle within the
...- Business Monitor International Ltd www - Business Monitor International Ltd www sWot analysis strengths Setting Venezuela apart from its neighbours, the country has enjoyed a long tradition of democracy, with elections held regularly since ----. A consistently high electoral turnout points to a strong level of public participation in politics. Weaknesses the military has traditionally played a dominant role in politics, and possible future intervention by disgruntled officers � especially fol- lowing the attempted coup in ---- �- is not beyond the realm of possibility. Relations between the government and the US remain strained, as late president Hugo Chavez accused the US government of inter- fering in Venezuela s domestic affairs and threatened to cut off oil supplies to the US. opportunities Given prudent investment, areas such as infrastructure and education could flourish as a result of the fiscal windfalls brought by devaluation of the bolivar and elevated oil prices, bringing longer-term stability to the economy and diminishing the risks of civil turbulence. threats the national assembly has pushed through several laws that were previously overturned in the constitutional referendum in ----. the weakening of democracy in the country threatens to raise political risk and poses a threat to private business activity. ...Overall, Venezuela scores --.- and ranks --th out of -- in Latin America in our Long-term Political Risk Ratings. Chapter -: political outlook s-t political rank trend chile --.- - =
...
