...In addition to this historical precedent, we note that Republicans hold fewer districts that we characterise as structurally vulnerable to voting out the incumbent than do the Democrats. The outcome of this fall s -- Senate races is somewhat harder to call, but if current trends were to continue, we would expect Republicans to win at least the six seats necessary to wrest control of the chamber from Democrats, who currently enjoy a ----- majority (this figure includes two independents � Sen. Sanders of Vermont and Sen. King of Maine � who vote with the Democrats). This view is based on the general headwinds for Democrats described above as well as an electoral map that heavily favours Republican candidates in the Senate. ...In all of them, Obama either won by a narrower margin or lost by a wider margin in ---- than he did in ----, suggesting that in the intervening years, voters in these states have become relatively less receptive to Democratic candidates in general. Without the powers of incumbency to protect seats currently held by Democrats in South Dakota and West Virginia, we believe there is a very strong possibility that Republicans will -- Business Monitor International Ltd www United states Q- ---- republican Majority in Fairly safe territory
...Democrats, - - Republicans, -- Independents ,- win those seats; the eroded margin for Obama in Michigan and Iowa indicates that these seats, too, are vulnerable to pick-up by Republican candidates. Setting incumbency aside, we note that there are more Democratic seats up for election this cycle that are in red (Republican- leaning) states, than there are Republicans running in blue states by a margin of --to--. ...Investigations of this nature could prove politically embarrassing for the White House, although they are unlikely to have major impact on the course of policy. In response to an opposition Congress, we would expect Obama to increasingly resort to executive orders and regulations as a means to affect policy, a trend we have already seen to some degree with the Environmental Protection Agency moving toward regulating greenhouse gases as a result of the inability to pass climate change legislation. Unified control of both chambers of Congress would also prove somewhat problematic for Republicans, as it would likely heighten divisions between the various factions of the party, including social conservatives, foreign policy hardliners, libertarian-leanings legislators, and deficit hawks. ...Unified control of both chambers of Congress would also prove somewhat problematic for Republicans, as it would likely heighten divisions between the various factions of the party, including social conservatives, foreign policy hardliners, libertarian-leanings legislators, and deficit hawks. We believe it is highly likely that these various factions of the Republican -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook open seats Favour republicans
...- Business Monitor International Ltd www United states Q- ---- core Views We expect a strengthening US consumer and stronger fixed invest- ment growth this year to boost real GDP growth to -.- from -.- in ----. While high frequency data suggest economic growth slowed in Q---, we expect that the slowdown was largely weather-related, with signs suggesting that its impact on the economy has already begun to dissipate. ...
