Labour Market Private Sector Wages Falling Wage growth is robust and accelerating, led by private sector. ...Hours Worked Falling Rising further in July to ---, overall trend is strong Claimant Count Stable Below pre-crisis lows and stable, although government reform of unemployment benefit has flattered reading Unemployment Claims Falling At pre-crisis lows, although pace of decline will slow Vacancies Falling Elevated but dropped slightly to ---k Unemployment Rate Falling Further decline to -.- , bulk of improvements now largely behind us as NAIRU approaches Participation Rate Stable Limited scope for significant increases due to high base Production & Output UK PMI Manufacturing Positive >-- and stable. Big rebound in October pointing towards strong Q- UK PMI Services Positive >-- and stable. ...Big rebound in October pointing towards strong Q- UK PMI Services Positive >-- and stable. Strong recovery from softness in Q-/Q--- Industrial Production Falling Weak, mirroring lagged decline in eurozone Capacity Utilisation Warning Deteriorating across ---- despite weak fixed investment GDP q/q Stable Slight weaker than expected in Q--- (-.- q/q vs -.- expected), leading indicators point towards stronger Q-
...There are downside risks to our economic growth forecasts, par- ticularly stemming from the impact of fiscal consolidation and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. In the case of the latter, we stress that even though near-term crisis risks in the euro area have dissipated somewhat, the anaemic pace of structural reform means that the single currency union will remain vulnerable to renewed stresses. ...In the case of the latter, we stress that even though near-term crisis risks in the euro area have dissipated somewhat, the anaemic pace of structural reform means that the single currency union will remain vulnerable to renewed stresses. We believe there is a non-negligible chance that the British elector- ate will vote to leave the EU at the upcoming referendum, which poses material risks to the UK s growth and investment outlook, as well as the performance of a number of sectors, including banking, chemicals and the automotive industry. We believe there is a non-negligible chance that the British elector- ate will vote to leave the EU at the upcoming referendum, which poses material risks to the UK s growth and investment outlook, as well as the performance of a number of sectors, including banking, chemicals and the automotive industry. ...We believe there is a non-negligible chance that the British elector- ate will vote to leave the EU at the upcoming referendum, which poses material risks to the UK s growth and investment outlook, as well as the performance of a number of sectors, including banking, chemicals and the automotive industry.
...Mortgage Approvals Rising Strong and rising, reached ---k in September, housing mkt showing no signs of slowing Home Sales Falling Cooling recently, new stamp duty brackets have lowered overall volumes Housing Affordability Falling Slight deterioration nationally, still well below pre-crisis levels Prices CPI Falling Below - target. Deflation is a temporary phenomenon but disinflationary trends will persist until Q--- Core CPI Rising Stability means core CPI to diverge further from headline CPI over coming months Fundamentals Trailing Profit Margin Rising PMs stabilising after sharp drop in PMs across Q----Q--- Forward Earnings Falling Stabilised after six months of decline ...
