Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat stagnation, rather than confidence in deficit reduction as the government has asserted) would provide Labour with a prime opportunity to denounce the policy the Conservatives have built their mandate around. Though the jury is still out as to whether Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne s optimistic strategy for deficit- reduction-led growth will work, the Conservatives have a number of attributes that bode well for the next election. ...How- ever, in light of the eurozone debt crisis, there is significant scope for the government to redefine the UK s role in the EU � a so-called power grab regarding Brussels. It is unclear whether this path will be pursued, but success in repatriating powers (particularly overhauling the contentious Human Right Act and renegotiating contributions to the EU budget) could have broad appeal across the political spectrum, potentially enabling the Conservatives to capture more centrist or even some centre-left voters. Conversely, succumbing to additional funding for the EU budget or regional bailouts would be political poison in the current climate of austerity. ...As such, there are likely to be a range of policy initiatives and conces- sions aimed at women voters, which could involve changes to family tax credits, women s retirement age and the system of maternity benefits. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
...With this in mind, expectations were low ahead of the pres- entation of the ---- budget to parliament on March --. There were some minor concessions for industry aimed at supporting investment and exports, a modest increase in the personal tax free allowance and a major overhaul in pensions. ...The economy is by far the biggest policy issue in the eyes of the electorate (immigration is not far behind) and so perceptions of economic competence among the main parties matters a big deal. We have long argued that despite the relative inertia in the polls, particularly for Labour which has consistently held a vote share around -- over the last few years (relative to the Conservative range in the high --s to low --s), the opposition lead will reverse unless Miliband and Balls can engineer a more comprehensive and credible economic policy platform, beyond the handful of populist measures such as clamping down on banker bonuses and freezing energy prices. This will clearly be the line of attack for the Conservatives over the course of the next year and one that will become increasingly potent. ...Aside from the obvious populism of cutting taxes on beer and bingo, changes to savings and pensions will have a major impact on older voters who have been adversely affected by low interest rates since the financial crisis. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook the Budget clearly targets older uKip Voters
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