The EU: The three-month uprising that overthrew former presi- dent Viktor Yanukovych was triggered by his decision not to sign an Association Agreement with the EU in November ----. Many Ukrainians interpreted this as Yanukovych steering the country decisively away from a European future and towards deeper political and economic integration with Russia. ...Meanwhile, if Poroshenko fails to make headway in guiding Ukraine closer to the EU, he could face a backlash from disappointed voters. -) Domestic Paralysis And Political Tug Of War: It is quite likely that future Ukrainian governments will lack broad national consensus, meaning that bold reforms, especially those geared towards eventual EU accession, would face considerable op- position and obstructionism, either from die-hard opponents of the West or from vested interest groups. The result of this would be political paralysis, with the country making some tentative progress, followed by reversals, and then perhaps a little more progress. ...Indeed, a federalised Ukraine appears to be Russia s ultimate goal, for it would allow Moscow to exert a great deal of influence in the putative autonomous regions of eastern Ukraine, at the expense of the central government in Kiev. A federal system would not preclude a break-up of the Ukrainian state at a later date.
...Ukraine has little experience of party-based politics, leading to dif- ficulties in forming coherent and stable parliamentary majorities, and weak government policymaking capability. Much of the post-independence period has been characterised by economic mismanagement, corruption and cronyism. ...The threat of a protracted military conflict would likely accelerate capital flight. BMi political risk ratings Ukraine s long-term political outlook is highly uncertain following the popular uprising that toppled President viktor yanukovych in February and the subsequent Russian military deployment in Crimea that resulted in its de facto separation. With so many questions still unresolved, the only thing we can say with confidence is that the next Ukrainian administration will struggle to govern the country and maintain its unity, let alone be in a position to carry out sweeping economic reforms. ...With so many questions still unresolved, the only thing we can say with confidence is that the next Ukrainian administration will struggle to govern the country and maintain its unity, let alone be in a position to carry out sweeping economic reforms. Chapter -: political outlook s-t political rank trend
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