...Source: BMI, UBOS engine of economic growth over the next few years, contributing about - percentage points to headline growth in ----. ...At present, the external sector is suffering from persistent insecurity in South Sudan, a key consumer of Ugandan goods, and declining coffee revenues � the country s main goods export � on the back of weak prices and stagnant production growth. Looking ahead, despite efforts by the government to boost productivity in the agricultural sector and other industries, we believe there is little chance of exports making meaningful inroads into the trade deficit until the scheduled onset of oil production in ---- at the earliest. Looking ahead, despite efforts by the government to boost productivity in the agricultural sector and other industries, we believe there is little chance of exports making meaningful inroads into the trade deficit until the scheduled onset of oil production in ---- at the earliest. ...Looking ahead, despite efforts by the government to boost productivity in the agricultural sector and other industries, we believe there is little chance of exports making meaningful inroads into the trade deficit until the scheduled onset of oil production in ---- at the earliest.
...A weak Ugandan shilling was the primary headwind for the economy in ----. It spurred an aggressive tightening of mon- etary conditions, caused rising inflation and dampened economic confidence. ...The main channel for this will be through the high cost of capital, as the lagged effects of monetary tightening in ---- are transmitted to the banking sector. Having increased the key rate by an aggressive --- basis points (bps) over the course of ----, we believe the Bank of Uganda (BoU) has reached the end of its hiking cycle and we believe that there will be a move towards interest rate normalisation in ----. That said, we do not expect monetary conditions to be loosened until Q---, and thus expect credit conditions to remain relatively tight over the near term. ...Meanwhile, on the demand side, even though economic confidence is picking up, many businesses and consumers are still being squeezed by the effects of FX inflation pass-through via higher import costs. Indeed, given that Uganda is still a largely cash-based economy � credit to - Business Monitor International Ltd www.bmiresearch.com
...
