Source: Bank Of Uganda, Ministry Of Finance, BMI or even when, Museveni will be replaced. Museveni, who earned his reputation as a freedom fighter and fierce opponent of Milton Obote s deadly regime, was initially welcomed as a reformer. ...In common with almost every other country in Africa whose borders were drawn without regard to existing regional and ethnic rivalries, Uganda is vulnerable to internal instability. This is particularly so in Acholiland, where years of civil war between the govern- ment forces and Lord s Resistance Army (LRA) have resulted in significant disparities in income and general quality of life with the north. These disparities are sharpened by an ethno-linguistic divide, the north comprising Nilotes (among them the Acholi) and the south comprising the Bantu-speaking majority, which was the preferred group of British colonial policy. ...This is particularly so in Acholiland, where years of civil war between the govern- ment forces and Lord s Resistance Army (LRA) have resulted in significant disparities in income and general quality of life with the north. These disparities are sharpened by an ethno-linguistic divide, the north comprising Nilotes (among them the Acholi) and the south comprising the Bantu-speaking majority, which was the preferred group of British colonial policy.
...Source: US Census Bureau - - - - - --- --- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --+ Male - - - - - Female Population in millions -mn people displaced over the course of the conflict, and the LRA is said to be on the verge of disintegration, the war s legacy in the north will be difficult to overcome. This is because Mu- seveni s government was very slow to build popular support in the war-affected areas, where many remember with resentment the experience of being placed in refugee camps. ...This process should be abetted by the entrenchment of a bona fide multi-party system, which will make it more difficult for the president to dominate the political scene, as he has in the past. With little sign of a successor on the horizon, it is certainly possible that Museveni will run again in ----, though we think it more likely that he will be persuaded to take a role behind the scenes � as was the case with Tanzania s former president Julius Nyerere. Intermediate Scenario � Museveni Clings To Power: In this scenario, Museveni would refuse to hand over power to any potential successor, resisting the natural shift from personal- ised rule to multi-party democracy. ...The country s various minorities, frustrated by the absence of po- litical representation, would take up arms against the central government, demanding the right to secede. Such a scenario would almost certainly be accompanied by the disintegration of the formal economy, perhaps along the lines of the Democratic
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