Source: BMI, World Bank ---- years, -- ----- years, -- ----- years, -- ----- years, -- --+ years, -- BMi s Long-term political risk ratings Our long-term political risk rating (LTPR) for Tunisia stands at --.-/---. The country scores --.-/--- for characteristics of pol- ity , from --.- previously. ...Moreover, the country s ability to form and enforce policy would be jeopardised, and could reduce the country s attractiveness as a destination for FDI. Neopatrimonial State: Given the aforementioned divisions within Tunisian society, we see the possibility of the next political leader creating a neopatrimonial state � one which, while ap- pearing to have democratic institutions, siphons public resources (including jobs, development projects, etc) disproportionately to benefit certain groups at the expense of others while cementing a political support base. Such a scenario could be fuelled by the provision of financial aid from the West, which the political leadership uses lavishly among only certain groups and thereby generating frustrations among those who do not benefit. ...Second, given the EU s increasingly assertive foreign policy stance in recent years, we do not believe the Tunisian leadership will risk damaging the deep trade and FDI relationships between itself and its northern neighbour by squandering its financial support. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
...That said, we note that there are still significant obstacles to be overcome. These include the ongoing need to create high-value jobs (especially in light of Tunisia s considerable youth popula- tion), the threat of radical militant groups setting up cells in the country, restoring security, and making policy choices that will attract foreign direct investment (FDI). ...Should the country s youth be dissatisfied with the rate of job creation, there would be heightened risks of public unrest. -. Islamist Militancy: While former president Ben Ali s zero- tolerance policy towards Islamist militant activity had largely stamped out radical groups such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the security vacuum in the country along with recent violence in neighbouring Libya threatens to give opportunities to militant groups not only to infiltrate the country but also to bring weapons with them from Libya. Tunisian security forces have worked to round up al-Qaeda suspects and gain intelligence on the whereabouts of other militants and arms stockpiles, but sporadic attacks have continued to occur throughout ----. The Tunisian public and political groups appear to be united in their condemnation of radical Islamist groups, but the security of the country will largely depend on the effectiveness of its security and military forces in restoring stability within its territory as well as their ability to protect the country s borders.
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