We are forecasting a period of robust growth in the Tanzanian economy over the coming years underpinned by the develop- ment of its nascent offshore gas sector and a strengthening consumer base. We predict that economic growth will average -.- between ---- and ----. ...Rising financial inclusion, accelerated by the spread of mobile financial services, will also play an important role in strengthening the consumer base. Government Consumption: Growth in government consump- tion is set to moderate over the coming years, with real growth averaging -.- between ---- and ----, compared to some -.- over the previous five years. Increased uncertainty over the future of external budget support is likely to engender a more cautious approach to expenditure and greater focus on fiscal consolidation. ...Investment: Our positive long-term growth outlook for Tanzania over the next decade is in large part predicated on continued heavy investment into the nascent offshore gas sector. While this view remains broadly intact, a weak oil price environment and regulatory uncertainty is likely to impact the pace of investment into the sector, particularly over the medium term.
...Clearly the longer his corruption drive continues, the more it is likely to face growing resistance, particularly when tackling the more organised, complex and high-level corruption that is rooted deep in the country s key institutions. We believe, however, that the safe navigation of the October election and the positive early strides made by Magufuli will underpin a broad-based pickup in investment over the coming quarters. ...We believe, however, that the safe navigation of the October election and the positive early strides made by Magufuli will underpin a broad-based pickup in investment over the coming quarters. Sectors such as construction, transport and banking are set to remain among the strongest performers over the coming quarters, buoyed by low oil prices, an acceleration in public infrastructure projects, and returning business confidence. The one notable exception will be in the oil and gas sector. ...Despite the passage of the Petroleum Act in ----, key areas of fiscal and regulatory uncertainty remain, and these issues will require clarification before a final investment deci- sion can be reached on key projects. Meanwhile, this climate of uncertainty within the sector has not been helped by a further deterioration in the oil price environment in recent months.
...
