So far, the effect of this mass immigration has been to bolster the population (which otherwise has a low fertility rate; stripping away immigrants, the population only increased by around -.- between ---- and ----) and to keep low-skilled jobs filled � by some estimates, immigrants occupied half of the jobs created in Spain between ---- and ----, during the height of the country s construction boom. However, soaring unemployment has put many of these problems to the fore and matters are becoming political as native Spaniards find work hard to come by. ...Spain still faces the unsettled matter of domestic unity, with some within autonomous provinces, such as Catalonia and the Basque Country, calling for independence. In the case of the former, secessionist sentiment continues to rise and the potential for a non-binding referendum to be held will be of big concern to the government (see Ris- ing Secessionist Sentiment Threatens Stability , February -), who can ill-afford to lose tax revenue generated by one of the country s most prosperous economic regions. The Monarchy Under Pressure: Spanish popular sentiment still runs fairly strongly in favour of the continuation of the monarchy, long after King Juan Carlos helped the country transition to a democratic system three decades ago. ...It is also noteworthy that Spain is one of the few Western nations to fall victim to a major Al-Qaeda attack, with --- people killed in a terrorist attack on Madrid s com- muter rail network in March ----. While the threat of further attacks appears to have diminished over the years, possibly in part owing to Spain s military withdrawal from Iraq and height- ened intelligence operations to crack down on Al-Qaeda cells, the country s ongoing presence in the NATO-led war effort in -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
...Source: - Eurostat /INE/BMI; - World Bank/UN/BMI; - Eurostat /BMI; - ECB/BMI; - BMI; - IGAE/BMI; - Banco de Espa ?MI; - IMF/BMI executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk ratings - Domestic politics - increased policy uncertainty post----- A lack of progress in tackling a decline in living standards will keep posing significant risks to social stability in Spain. ...Source: - Eurostat /INE/BMI; - World Bank/UN/BMI; - Eurostat /BMI; - ECB/BMI; - BMI; - IGAE/BMI; - Banco de Espa ?MI; - IMF/BMI executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk ratings - Domestic politics - increased policy uncertainty post----- A lack of progress in tackling a decline in living standards will keep posing significant risks to social stability in Spain. It will also prevent the ruling People s Party (PP) and opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) from winning a majority at the ---- parliamentary elections, opening the door for smaller parties to play a bigger role in Spanish politics and to undermine policy making over the next few years. ...We forecast the budget shortfall to fall to -.- of GDP in ----, cautioning that any rise in borrowing costs would pose downside risks to this forecast.
...In order to correct for the massive imbalances built up during Spain s decade-long economic boom, the economy is now in the first stages of rebalancing that will result in a lower long-run growth potential. taBle: lonG-terM MacroeconoMic forecasts -- chapter -: Business environment -- sWot analysis -- BMi Business environment risk ratings -- Business environment outlook -- institutions -- taBle: BMi Business and oPeration risK ratinGs -- taBle: BMi leGal fraMeWorK ratinG -- infrastructure -- taBle: laBour force Quality -- Market orientation -- taBle: trade and inVestMent ratinGs -- operational risk -- taBle: toP eXPort destinations -- chapter -: Key sectors -- -- taBle: defence eXPenditure, --------- -- -- taBle: Water eXtraction, --------- -- taBle: Water consuMPtion, --------- -- other Key sectors -- taBle: PharMa sector Key indicators -- taBle: oil and Gas sector Key indicators -- taBle: infrastructure sector Key indicators -- taBle: food and drinK sector Key -- taBle: autos sector Key indicators -- taBle: freiGht Key indicators -- chapter -: BMi Global assumptions -- Global outlook -- Growth increasingly polarised taBle: GloBal -- taBle: deVeloPed states, real GdP GroWth, -- taBle: BMi Versus BlooMBerG consensus real GdP GroWth forecasts, -- taBle: eMerGinG MarKets, real GdP GroWth, -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www Spain Q- ---- core Views Spain s economic recovery will remain unbalanced in ----. ...
