South Africa Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Business Forecast Reports

South Africa Country Risk Report

South Africa Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Business Forecast Reports
South Africa Country Risk Report
Published Oct 19, 2016
44 pages — Published Oct 19, 2016
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Abstract:

We maintain our ---- real GDP growth forecast at -.- . The absence of load shedding at least until May ---- justifies a minor increase from ---- s -.- , but strikes are likely to pick up in ----. ...Delays to the mineral resource law and prospective plans for land reform and a national minimum wage will cause a further slowdown in private sector investment growth in ----. Presi- dent Zuma announced major land reform measures in February, including: -) to prohibit foreigners from owning productive land (although not retroactively); -) to cap land ownership at --,--- ha with the excess transferred to black ownership; -) to make workers who have lived on white-owned farms for many years eligible to acquire a share of the farm up to -- . The implementation of these measures will be challenging, as the second and third measures could be criticized for going against the constitution, which says property can only be expropriated for a public purpose or in the public interest with compensa- tion. ...The deteriorating invest- ment climate also means that potential growth, now estimated at ---.- , cannot recover. Add on at least another -- basis points in interest rate hikes in Q- (possibly -- if the rand continues its collapse) and the picture for investment is grim indeed.

...However, in the long term, the South African savings rate should eventually rise, as the terms of trade continue to deteriorate. A rise in the savings rate should also result from the fact that the share of the working age population to total population rises, thereby increasing the number of producers in the economy. ...While there are some more progressive elements within the ANC that are open to a discussion on privatisation, there has been no forward momentum on this in the past few months. Still, government consumption will be forced to decline as a share of GDP over the coming years as the South African government either takes active steps to rein in the fiscal deficit or it is forced to do so via a surge in bond yields. Government consumption represented --.- of GDP in ---- and this actu- ally the highest on record. Fixed Investment: If South Africans are forced to save more, gross fixed capital formation would be higher, hence we think it will rise from the current -- to more than --.- by ----. Net Exports: As consumption declines, imports will rise at a slower pace than exports, which will turn net exports into a contributor to growth.

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Source:
Document ID
2058-0215
Country
Format:
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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Business Forecast Reports. "South Africa Country Risk Report" Oct 19, 2016. Alacra Store. Mar 29, 2024. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Business-Forecast-Reports/South-Africa-Country-Risk-Report-2129-614>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Business Forecast Reports. (2016). South Africa Country Risk Report Oct 19, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Mar 29, 2024 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Business-Forecast-Reports/South-Africa-Country-Risk-Report-2129-614>
  
US$ 1,195.00
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