---- ----e ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f ----f Private final consumption, RSDbn -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- -,---.- Private final consumption, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Private final consumption, real growth y-o-y --.- --.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. ...The main reason behind our forecast is the structural adjustment programme that began in ---- under the auspices of the International Monetary Fund, which entails the implementation of market-friendly reforms aimed at boosting export competitiveness, growth prospects and fiscal and public debt metrics. More specifically, some of these measures have entailed the trimming of the public sector, privatisation of state-owned enterprises, which while painful in the short term, especially for households, will boost the coun- try s economic growth prospects, making private consumption a smaller share of GDP in the coming years. Public Consumption: The structural adjustment and fiscal con- solidation programme will keep a lid on public expenditure, and we expect public spending to remain on a conservative trajectory in the coming years. ...Serbia s import dependence is underpinned by its underdeveloped productive capacities, which will take many years to improve, underpinning a resilient import growth rates in the next decade.
...Serbia s economic rebound will remain on track in ----, but growth will remain tepid, as fiscal consolidation measures and structural reforms will prevent a stronger recovery in domestic demand. While Serbia s ongoing economic rebound will remain on track in ----, we remain sceptical that it will pick up much further momentum. ...However, as repair activi- ties slow, we see limited source of growth in fixed investment. The ongoing structural reform programme implemented by the government, in accordance with the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund concluded in February ----, entails liberalisation and privatisation meas- ures, which have heightened the regulatory uncertainty. This will keep a lid on business confidence in the coming quarters. Furthermore, business credit remains subdued as banks continue to struggle with elevated bad quality loans, while businesses continue to deleverage.
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