...Infrastructure investment will also benefit from the government s efforts to bolster transit capacity, upgrading its air and seaports. While the discovery of commercial oil sup- plies remains an upside risk that would significantly boost fixed capital formation, our forecasts assume that Sao Tome and Principe s oil sector remains prospective over the coming years. We forecast investment will rise from --.- of GDP in ---- to --.- in ----. ...Indeed, we expect imports will continue to outweigh exports by several multiples, equalling nearly --.- of GDP over the coming years, supported by strengthening private consumption and investment. In the latter half of our forecast period, imports are likely to begin to increasingly outpace exports, largely a result of rapidly expand- ing private consumption, which will result in net exports share of GDP rising from ---.- of GDP in ---- to ---.- in ----.
...Source: UN, BMI the country s heavy external debts, split evenly between direct investments and other investment. That said, the IMF acknowl- edges that data collection is inadequate, stating that the limited scope and completeness of data generates notable uncertainty. We expect Sao Tome and Principe to remain a net debtor over the coming decade, with foreign direct investments rising as the country s tourism sector expands, attracting construction of hotels, resorts and restaurants. Nonetheless, Sao Tome and Principe s external position will remain relatively protected from capital flight, given that its debt is overwhelmingly concessional, secured from multilateral and bilateral partners. ...Balance Of Payments: Sao Tome and Principe s current account deficit will remain substantial over the coming years due to its small export base and reliance on imports.
...Sao Tome and Principe will see average real GDP growth rates de- celerate in the coming years, as the small island nation s heavy import burden drags down overall growth. The tourism sector will be the major economic driver, attracting investment and providing a growing source of employment. ...
