Rwanda s media, which foreign monitors including Freedom House allege is firmly controlled by the state, has run a series of articles and letters to the editor opposing the idea of binding term limits. A July ---- letter to Kigali s New Times reminded readers that a constitution isn t a straitjacket but a living covenant with built-in rules for amendment as the polity requires. ...They point to the murder of journalists and defectors and to the ongoing trial of Victoire Ingabire, an opposition leader facing charges that are widely seen as political. The RPF s control over the government, it holds -- of -- directly-elected seats in parliament and received --.- of the votes in the ---- presidential election, speak to the lack of any real political competition in Rwanda. The ruling party has the political and legal means to amend the constitution at will. ...A high profile position at the African Union would be a possible reward, as would the Mo Ibrahim award for good government, and the position as an African statesman. The RPF s internal decision-making processes are highly opaque, but Kenyan and Ugandan media have frequently cited informed sources as saying that a committee charting the way towards a post-Kagame future has already been established, with the goal of providing change, continuity, and stability after ----.
...We stress, though, that risks to this forecast are increasing. The president s recent statements have raised concerns both at home and abroad. ...The murder of a Rwandan dissident living in South Africa has had a chill- ing effect on relations with Pretoria (see Assassination Attempt Risks Diplomatic Isolation , March -) . The killing, and a second assassination attempt in March caused the chair of the American House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee to write a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry calling for Washington to closely re-evaluate US engagements with Rwanda and take into account these troubling actions when considering future assistance The assassinations follow a damaging spat with donors in ---- and ---- caused by evidence that Kigali was supporting the M-- rebels in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rwanda later cut its support to the group, but only after providing months of aid. ...This would be highly destabilising, likely leading to a lasting dispute with key foreign donors and raising the potential of a damaging aid shut off. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
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