Qatar s recent economic trajectory has thus resulted in a shift from exports towards consumption and investment, a trend which the current slump in global energy prices is set to deepen. Private and government consumption still only accounted for a combined --.- of GDP as of ----, a low proportion by interna- tional standards. ...Government Consumption Outlook: We believe that govern- ment consumption will grow at a slower pace over the coming years, with the authorities keen to maintain restraint on current spending amid a low oil price environment. Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who ascended to the throne in June ---- after his father s abdication, has been consistently more fis- cally conservative than his predecessor, slowing the growth of current spending and taking steps to centralise control over public entities spending decisions. Lower oil prices are likely to prompt further efforts to improve oversight on public infra- structure projects and limit cost overruns. ...Fixed Investment Outlook: We forecast average real GFCF growth of -.- until ----, compared to -.- between ---- and ----. Qatar s USD---bn infrastructure programme � as part of its ---- economic development plan � provides a strong anchor -- Business Monitor International Ltd www.bmiresearch.com
...The performance of the Qatari economy will be more mixed than in re- cent years, amid the intertwined pressures of the global energy slump and tightening domestic liquidity. We forecast real economic growth of -.- this year and -.- in ----, driven mainly by strong growth in the primary and secondary sectors. ...With Qatar set to post a budget deficit this year for the first time since ----, the government will seek to maintain a tight grip on public spending. The ---- budget, announced at the end of last year, plans to sustain infrastructure investments in key sectors like health, education, infrastructure and transport, with a special focus on railways and other projects tied to Qatar s hosting of the FIFA ---- World Cup. However, Doha is looking to reform its subsidy system and liberalise prices for utilities and fuel, while restraining the public sector wage bill and placing renewed emphasis on the private sector. ...The influx of higher-income expatriate workers into Doha, which has helped to power private consumption and service sector growth over the past few years, is therefore abating and is likely to go into reverse. Although official data from the Qatari statistical authorities suggest that the total population is still growing at a brisk pace � at -.-mn in January � this is largely driven by lower-income construction workers, which are also - Business Monitor International Ltd www.bmiresearch.com
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