e/f = BMI estimate/forecast, Source: Banco de Portugal, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, BMI - Business Monitor International Ltd www portugal Q- ---- - Business Monitor International Ltd www contents executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk ratings - Domestic politics - Mounting Domestic risks to Fiscal consolidation efforts Domestic opposition to the government s efforts at consolidating the budget and implementing structural reform will grow following Portugal s exit of the three-year long bailout programme, which has decreased international pressure for reform. This will worsen Portugal s sovereign risk profile, which will jeopardise the country s ability to pay its debts in the medium term. ...This will worsen Portugal s sovereign risk profile, which will jeopardise the country s ability to pay its debts in the medium term. taBle: Political overview - chapter -: economic outlook -- sWot analysis -- BMi economic risk ratings -- economic activity -- tepid Growth ahead Despite a strong Q--- We have slightly revised up our forecast for Portuguese real GDP growth for ---- on account of a stronger than expected Q--- growth reading. Nevertheless, we reiterate our downbeat outlook for Portugal s long-term growth prospects, and we expect the country to register below pre- ---- growth levels for the foreseeable future. ...We are forecasting an economy more reliant on external demand and investment and less on private consumption over the coming decade, but the future will depend in large part on the government s reform programme bearing fruit. taBle: lonG-term macroeconomic forecasts -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www portugal Q- ---- chapter -: Business environment -- sWot analysis -- BMi Business environment risk ratings -- chapter -: Key sectors -- pharmaceuticals & Healthcare -- taBle: Pharmaceutical sales, historical data and -- taBle: healthcare exPenditure trends, historical data and forecasts -- taBle: Government healthcare exPenditure trends, historical data and forecasts -- taBle: Private healthcare exPenditure trends, historical data and forecasts -- other Key sectors -- taBle: telecoms sector Key indicators -- taBle: infrastructure sector Key indicators -- taBle: autos sector Key indicators -- chapter -: BMi Global assumptions --
...Domestic opposition to the government s efforts at consolidating the budget and implementing structural reform will grow following Por- tugal s exit of the three-year long bailout programme, which has de- creased international pressure for reform. This will worsen Portugal s sovereign risk profile, which will jeopardise the country s ability to pay its debts in the medium term. ...In- deed, the turnout in the European Parliament elections was record low of -- . Furthermore, fringe parties with an-anti European Union and anti-eurozone agenda saw their support increase, such as the Democratic Unitarian Coalition (CDU), comprising the Communist Party and the environmentally-friendly Eco- logical Party, which now have three Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Similarly, another anti-establishment party � Earth Party (MPT) � also secured two MEPs, campaigning predominantly on criticism of the ruling coalition, European big business and the financial system. ...Furthermore, fringe parties with an-anti European Union and anti-eurozone agenda saw their support increase, such as the Democratic Unitarian Coalition (CDU), comprising the Communist Party and the environmentally-friendly Eco- logical Party, which now have three Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Similarly, another anti-establishment party � Earth Party (MPT) � also secured two MEPs, campaigning predominantly on criticism of the ruling coalition, European big business and the financial system.
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