...Moreover, and as alluded to above, Poland will likely enjoy increasing status and influence at the supranational level over the coming decade � something that will undoubtedly challenge Europe s traditional dominance by France and Germany. EU immigration may also come under the spotlight, as the significant flows of Polish workers into other European nations could come under increasing scrutiny by foreign politicians hoping to boost their political popularity at home amid weak domestic economies. challenges and threats to stability Domestic Political Maturity: A key question and challenge for Poland s long-term political outlook will be the level of maturity shown by both institutions and politicians. ...We assign scores for likelihood out of --, with -- being highly likely and - being highly unlikely.
...Source: Homo Homini (May ----) the Hinge of europe regional Map Source: BMI integration in European affairs. Key to Poland s political risk trajectory will be the way it conducts foreign relationships with regard to the US, the EU and � last but not least � Russia. ...In addition to significant foreign policy questions, the country will face challenges at home. While economic growth remains far from negative territory and has imbued Poland with a sense of optimism and confidence after the country was among the few to avoid recession in ----, the future will not be without policy choices and challenges, not least of which is related to the unwinding of massive fiscal stimulus initiated between ---- and ----. Finally, we highlight that a possible clash between an older, conservative generation and younger, more liberal voters could be on the cards in the years ahead. ...However, considering that we believe the Poland-US relation- ship will remain well established over the long term, increased political and military integration with the US could strain ten- sions with Russia. Moreover, we cannot discount the risk that Polish lawmakers will attempt to score political points at home by raising the level of nationalist rhetoric, which would most likely paint Russia in an antagonistic light.
...We forecast Polish real GDP growth to average -.- between ---- and ----, down slightly from -.- between ---- and ----. Poland is well placed to avoid the pitfalls of the middle income trap and continue benefitting from large catch-up growth with the rich EU economies. ...
