Average Score Of Developed Countries In Asia shortfalls, if they had already been running budgetary gaps prior to the crisis), and New Zealand s fiscal position still compares favourably with that of the US and most Western European countries. The government has pledged to maintain austere budgets for the next few years to return the budget to surplus in FY ----/--, but we expect this to come later in FY----/--. ...Of greater interest are emigration and immigration patterns. Since the late ----s, the number of New Zealanders moving abroad permanently (defined as -- months or more) has generally fluctuated between --,--- and --,--- annually, but has exceeded the number of New Zealanders returning home (around --,--- annually) for at least -- years. Australia remains the top destination for New Zealanders moving abroad, presumably because of its perceived greater economic and social opportunities. ...Those moving to New Zealand tend to come from the UK or Asian countries such as India, China, the Philippines and Fiji, or the South Pacific. The inflow from Asia includes students, whose stay may not be truly permanent , but overall their presence could lead to greater debates over multiculturalism, as seen in
...National Sources/BMI executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk ratings - Domestic politics - new coalition partners May Weaken national s policy-Making abilities Recent opinion polls held in New Zealand suggest that the economy remains the primary concern for voters, which bodes well for the ruling National party given their positive track record in managing the economy. That said, we note that the government s ability to form policy could weaken as we see a growing possibility that the national party will need the support of other minority parties. ...We believe that stability concerns with regards to the property and banking sectors will persuade the central bank to maintain its conservative stance. taBle: Monetary -- Balance of payments -- nZD: Bearish case still Dominates Despite rate Hikes With interest rate hikes largely priced in, our more dovish-than-consensus outlook for rates and the New Zealand dollar trading at extreme valuations, we believe that at current levels, a bearish outlook is still warranted. We further highlight that sentiment surrounding the NZD is still very bullish, but note that weaker US growth could lead to further monetary easing, which could outweigh any kiwi weakness from the fundamental factors. ...We further highlight that sentiment surrounding the NZD is still very bullish, but note that weaker US growth could lead to further monetary easing, which could outweigh any kiwi weakness from the fundamental factors. taBle: current account -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www contents chapter -: ---Year Forecast -- the new Zealand economy to --
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