Telecom has a strong presence in Mali, Gabon, Mauritania and Burkina Faso: its subsidiaries in these countries saw mobile customer numbers grow by -- to -- during the first nine months of ----, according to the latest quarterly report. Attija- riwafa Bank, Morocco s largest lender, acquired Mali s Banque Internationale in ---- and holds a --.- share of Senegal s retail lending market. ...While fertiliser use in Africa is the lowest in the world at present, our Agribusiness research team sees room for demand growth, particularly in the context of base effects (see Africa Fertiliser Outlook , February --). This potential was underscored by the signing during the King s visit of an USD-.-bn joint-venture agreement with Gabon to construct four fertiliser factories to serve the African market, with the aim of producing -mn tonnes annually by ----. In infrastructure, opportunities exist for Morocco in both construction work and the supply of raw materials. ...Senegal ranked behind France as the second export destination for Moroccan finished pharmaceu- ticals in ----, with exports of USD-.-bn (Cote d Ivoire came eighth). In Cote d Ivoire, our Pharmaceuticals research team forecasts that long-term spending on medicines will increase from USD---mn in ---- to USD---mn by ---- (see Phar- -- Business Monitor International Ltd www
...While our bullish outlook towards Moroccan fixed income (adopted in February) has played out well, we believe that most of the gains are now behind us. We expect upside pressure on Morocco s Eurobond yields to increase over the second half of ----. ...Nevertheless, we caution that several issues, such as high unemployment combined with a growing youth population, if not addressed properly, could pose serious threats to our positive long-term view. taBle: lonG-terM MacroeconoMic forecasts -- chapter -: Business environment -- sWot analysis -- BMi Business environment risk ratings -- chapter -: BMi Global assumptions -- Global outlook -- Growth increasingly polarised taBle: GloBal -- taBle: deVeloPed states, real GdP GroWtH, -- taBle: BMi Versus BlooMBerG consensus real GdP GroWtH forecasts, -- taBle: eMerGinG MarKets, real GdP GroWtH, -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www MOROCCO Q- ---- core Views despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the Moroccan economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manu- facturing hub for the european market, coupled with a burgeoning tourism industry, should bode well for Morocco s underlying growth momentum in the next few years. ...The export sector remains highly vulnerable to any escalation of the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis, and a return to recession in the eurozone would force us to make significant downward revisions to our growth forecast. - Business Monitor International Ltd www executive summary
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