Source: BMI nato troop arrival Largely symbolic so Far The growing perceived threat from Russia has caused sufficient alarm for Latvia to request the establishment of permanent NATO bases within their borders. However, Russia would likely object to such a development on the basis that it would be at odds with the West s ---- understanding with Moscow limiting NATO bases ( substantial combat forces ) on Russia s periphery. ...How realistic is a crimea-style scenario in Latvia? As we noted above, Latvia and Ukraine share some similarities in terms of both sharing a high and roughly similar concentra- tion of ethnic Russian speakers (Latvia actually has a slightly higher concentration than Ukraine, although its overall popula- tion is around -- times smaller). As with Ukraine, Latvia also has a significant Russian-language media presence (although as of April, Latvia has implemented a three-month ban of all programmes on Russian TV channel Rossiya RTR). ...Even so, Russia would be reluctant to intervene through destabilisation efforts given the risks of much tougher Western sanctions. Long-term political outlook slower Growth and ethnic tensions
...Ethnic Tensions: These are likely to remain a dominant theme in Latvian politics over the coming decade. Ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minorities make up --.- of the population against --.- ethnically Latvian. ...Worst-Case Scenario: Our worst-case scenario for Latvia calls for a complete denigration of ties with Russia, which would likely be sparked by an event involving the mistreatment of the ethnic Russian and Russian speaking minority. In this eventuality, given the high uncertainty regarding the NATO guarantee to the region over the coming decade (see NATO Relevancy Questioned, But Viable Alternatives Lacking , June -- ----), the beneficiary of all-out conflict, or even diplomatic spats, would fall on Russia due to the asymmetrical relationship between the Baltic country and its goliath neighbour. While not our core view, we see this scenario as more likely than the best-case scenario. ...While not our core view, we see this scenario as more likely than the best-case scenario.
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