BMi ratings � Brief Methodology composite rating The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI s emerging markets universe. political ratings The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. ...Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating. ...While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.
...Domestic -- relations With serbia to Deteriorate under next Government Kosovo s likely next government is set to be formed by opposition parties with a more hardline nationalist stance towards Serbia than former Prime Minister Hashim Thaci s ruling PDK party. This means mounting risks to the implementation of the EU-brokered agreement between Pristina and Belgrade and to Kosovo s bid of pursuing further integration with the EU in the coming years. ...Growing tensions in Kosovo s northern provinces will weigh on business and consumer confidence, and our forecast for real GDP growth to average -.- over the next five years means that Kosovo will remain one of the poorest European economies given the low base. taBle: GdP By exPenditure -- chapter -.-: ---Year Forecast � -- the Kosovian economy to ---- -- economy to remain Least Developed in region Kosovo s economy will remain the least developed in the western Balkan region through to ----, as underdeveloped road and energy infrastructure act as a clear check on growth potential over the long term. Foreign assistance and remittance inflows will remain key sources of external capital, particularly as elevated political risk continues to deter large-scale foreign investment. ...Foreign assistance and remittance inflows will remain key sources of external capital, particularly as elevated political risk continues to deter large-scale foreign investment. We project real GDP to expand by an average of -.- between ---- and ----.
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