Despite the terrorist attack on the Westgate shopping centre, the po- liticisation of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat to Kenya s long-term political stability. Although the ---- elections were peace- ful, voting patterns show that the electorate continues to cast ballots according to ethnicity. ...Most attacks by Somali Islamist militant group al-Shabaab and related organisations have historically been small-scale operations such as drive-by shootings and grenade attacks. While the Westgate attack signifies that the group is able to execute complex operations, we do not believe that it has the resources or organisational capacity to launch such at- tacks on a frequent basis, and we expect that most attacks will remain relatively small. Strong statements by President Uhuru Kenyatta lead us to believe that Kenyan troops will continue their mission in Somalia and that a withdrawal is highly unlikely. ...It will also be important to make attempts to decisively address disputes relating to land ownership, which have been at the heart of historic friction in the Rift Valley and Coast Provinces in particular. This may prove tricky given that the vast swathes of land owned by the Kenyatta family are widely regarded as being emblematic of the problem.
...When the security forces do react, they often do so in ways which risk harming community relations. The heavy-handed approach to dealing with the threat posed by Islamic extremism is also feeding into radicalisation of elements of the country s Muslim community, including young Kenyan men, rather than just those of Somali origin. ...Fears were heightened in late March when Mombasa County Commissioner Nelson Marwa granted police investigating the March -- attack on the Joy of Jesus church, a shoot-to-kill order when tracking down suspects. Kenya s chief inspector of police, David Kimaiyo, subsequently publicly repudiated this order � which was seen as illegal � but the fact that it was publicly issued underlines, at best, the extent of command and control problems within the country s security forces, while also further exacerbating suspicions that extra- judicial killings are covertly being carried out by the security establishment. sectarian tensions rising Meanwhile, the raid against the Musa Mosque points to a heightened danger that more attacks against Christian places of worship will be carried out by young al-Shabaab recruits. ...The Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims has worked closely with church leaders to periodically cool tensions, and the country has a strong history of inter-religious co-operation. Equally, however, there are signs of violent opposition to moderate Is- lam from the within the increasingly noticeable radical strand, including the stoning of a moderate cleric by Muslim youths in
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