Source: BMI cally have even shorter tenures, lasting only a few months, and many have proved gaffe-prone, leading to swift resignations. These rapid changes of personnel weaken the executive and leave power in the hands of the bureaucracy. ...The Scope of State score is --.- and Policy Continuity is --.-. External security threats are substantially reduced by Japan s ---year alliance with the US. scenarios For political change One-Party Rule Under The LDP: Following the LDP s land- slide victory in ---- and the DPJ s loss of -- of its seats, the possibility exists that the LDP will rule Japan for many years to come. This scenario is more likely if the DPJ disintegrates, as its more ambitious members seek to improve their fortunes by joining new parties. ...A grand coalition would be likely if neither the LDP nor DPJ won a majority in the next election. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook
...Abe administration is reviewing guidelines under which Japan can export weapons. The revised set of principles and guidelines will allow the sale of armaments if the transaction and related entities pass government screening, but will continue to prohibit the sale and shipment of arms to countries that are involved in a conflict or have violated UN resolutions. ...Indeed, there is growing evidence that the business outlook in Japan is dimming quite quickly, evident from the Bank of Japan s quarterly Tankan survey. The latest survey for Q--- found that businesses expect conditions to worsen more than they did during the previous consumption tax hike in ----, with the diffusion index of forecasts from both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms falling sharply to - versus current conditions surveyed coming in at -- and -- in the two sectors respectively. Meanwhile, with all -- major electricity suppliers and four major gas firms in Japan set to raise their rates in May, we see the possibility that New Komeito will be less willing to co-operate on constitutional changes, and instead, press the LDP to refocus on the domestic economic situation. ...Indeed, the minority coalition partner is more reliant on grassroots support through its links with the Buddhist organisation, Soka Gakkai, which could make it more sensitive to the deteriorating purchasing power of households. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook expecting a Much softer outlook...
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