Iraq faces multiple challenges to its stability over the coming decade, and we do not preclude a return to authoritarian rule, renewed sectarian conflict or the break-up of the state. The key to maintaining stability is ensuring that Iraq s separate ethnic groups interests are protected by the federal government. ...The country also experienced substantial violence between its Shi a majority and Sunni minority, the latter of which had enjoyed a privileged status under Baathist rule. At the same time, Iraq s Kurdish population, which is concentrated in the north of the country and has enjoyed substantial autonomy since the early ----s, was able to strengthen the Kurdistan Regional Govern- ment (KRG) as an autonomous entity. Despite considerable political and security problems, Iraq was able to hold three general elections, in ----, ---- and ----. ...During Hussein s rule, the Sun- nis enjoyed a privileged status in society, while the Shi as were repressed. However, with the removal of the Baathist regime, the
...We expect the headline inflation in Iraq to trend higher over the coming months. That said, lower-than expected readings in Q--- have led us to revise our ---- CPI forecast down. ...The oil and gas sector will continue to be the lifeblood of the economy over this time frame. taBle: lonG-terM MacroeconoMic forecasts -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www contents chapter -: Business environment -- sWot analysis -- BMi Business environment risk ratings -- Business environment outlook -- institutions -- taBle: BMi Business and oPeration risK ratinGs -- taBle: BMi leGal fraMeWorK ratinG -- infrastructure -- taBle: laBour force Quality -- Market orientation -- taBle: Mena � annual fdi infloWs -- taBle: trade and investMent ratinGs -- operational risk -- taBle: toP exPort destinations -- chapter -: BMi Global assumptions -- Global outlook -- Growth increasingly polarised taBle: GloBal -- taBle: develoPed states, real GdP GroWtH, -- taBle: BMi versus BlooMBerG consensus real GdP GroWtH forecasts, -- taBle: eMerGinG MarKets, real GdP GroWtH, -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www Iraq q- ---- core Views Despite the formation of a government in December ----, we ex- pect political progress to remain slow and stability fragile. a broken power-sharing agreement and persistent sectarian tensions present key risks. ...a broken power-sharing agreement and persistent sectarian tensions present key risks. the iraqi economy will be among the fastest growing in the world over the coming five years, driven by an aggressive increase in oil production and the start of large-scale infrastructure projects.
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