...Note: Lower Ratings Correspond to Higher Risks, scores out of ---. ...Moreover, the US is keen to show the world its commitment to talks, with a view to maintaining the support of key buyers of Iranian oil � most notably India and China � in the implementa- tion of existing sanctions. On the other side, President Hassan Rouhani s administration has strong incentives to compromise on the least sensitive issues on the table in exchange for an easing of sanctions, given that his popular mandate rests on his ability to improve relations with the West and consequently the domestic economy. Some areas of compromise may thus emerge, which would justify rolling over the current interim agreement in July and potentially again in January ----. ...Breakdown: -- chance The huge challenges associated with the nuclear issue could cause talks to be derailed in ---- or ----. A collapse could result from domestic machinations in Iran, with Rouhani losing key internal support especially from the Supreme leader Ayatol- lah Ali Khamenei and the conservative military establishment.
...Source: BMI, United Nations outcome of the latest round of negotiations in a speech directed to a domestic audience, despite declaring that Iran will not back away from its commitments. ...Iran could quickly be able to put additional volumes on the market, with an estimated -----mn barrels of oil contained in floating storage alone. Moreover, with new investment Iran could eventually recover to pre-sanctions production capacity, which was in the area of -.-mn bbl/d, compared to current output of -.--mn bbl/d in December ---- (according to International Energy Agency data). Similarly, foreign investors will be keen to enter the country, given its large consumer base as well as potential in key sectors such as energy and infrastructure. ...Similarly, foreign investors will be keen to enter the country, given its large consumer base as well as potential in key sectors such as energy and infrastructure. Long-term political outlook regime change Likely By the next
...Although Iran s Islamic regime has proved resilient in the face of tre- mendous domestic and external pressure, we believe that it cannot continue in its present form indefinitely. Consequently, we expect to see regime change by the next decade, either through gradual reform or a popular uprising. ...
